The analyst called the most likely scenario in relations between the West and Russia
Western politicians are obliged to go on output of the fall in the relations between Russia and the West, writes employee of the University of California at Berkeley Edward Walker in a publication published by the portal.
Analyzing the current situation, Walker calls the 3 most likely scenarios:
- A return to "normal" relations and cooperation.
- Unstable hostile relationship without clear rules of engagement and a clear line of demarcation between Russia and the West. In this case, according to Walker, the Probability of war will be even higher.
- Stable hostile relationship, which defines the rules of interaction and the line of demarcation between the parties. Similar relations were established during the 2nd phase of the cold war.
the analysis of the analyst, the least possible 1st edition. The probability of the second scenario, the analysis Walker, 55%, although it is the least desirable for all parties. The probability of the 3rd scenario is about 35%.
The implementation of the 3rd scenario will require the establishment of a buffer zone between Russia and NATO, which will include Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan. She must be given a legitimate status by concluding an international Treaty.
A key condition is that the countries of the buffer zone will not enter into any alliances for the maintenance of Collective security and on their territory will not be foreign troops.
Neutrality in this case does not imply disarmament and can even help to improve the safety of neutral countries - as the example of Switzerland or Liechtenstein, emphasizes the analyst. In addition, the neutral status contributes to economic prosperity.
Walker indicates that Neutrality is not required to be an obstacle to the entry of Ukraine and Georgia into the European Union. In this case, however, they will need to refuse to participate in Collective security policy and defence of the EU. Also Ukraine and Georgia should not be offered membership in NATO, as this would create the danger of war with Russia, emphasizes the analyst.
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