Forbes: Ukraine is caught between a rock and a debt anvil
You should not divide the premature optimism of the international monetary Fund on state debt of Ukraine, writes Francesca Coppola, journalist.
review Coppola, Ukraine is caught between a rock and a hard place. If she will impose a moratorium on the payment of foreign debts, it May Not like Russia. However, the moratorium and the exclusion of Russia will lead to decades of litigation.
for its part, without the consent of the lenders on reasonable debt restructuring, the IMF will suspend further funding, making the inevitable onset of a terrible economic crash, says Coppola.
Grieving the country was embroiled in the struggle between creditors and the IMF, says the Creator of the article. In her vision, When debt restructuring will Not be agreed, then the introduction of the debt moratorium in September in practice steadily.
"Debt moratorium would mean a default (after grace period), for which, Perhaps, in the end followed by a debt restructuring," said Coppola.
Greater uncertainty, in the opinion of the analyst, and is a civil war in the East.
"If it continues as it was with similar conflicts, for example in Kosovo, the consequences will be unpleasant," writes Coppola.
in her expressions, there is a real risk that Ukraine will be divided. In this case, the country will lose Much of their productive capacity. And that this means that only reduce the amount of its arrears will not be enough to save the country.
General state dog of Ukraine is about 70 billion dollars, of which about 40 billion dollars accounts for external debt. Ukraine in the framework of the plan of debt repayment has asked creditors to write off 40% of the principal amount of the debt and accept a fresh bond linked to future economic performance. However, the dialogue on restructuring until failed. Kiev sent to creditors last edited proposal and did Not exclude, if necessary, the imposition of a moratorium on the payment of foreign debts.
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