Devyatov waiting for Putin's statements about the policy of economic liberalization
Economists expect annual message to Fedarene the head of the Russian Federation will address questions about the state of the Russian economy, will announce the course on its liberalization And increase of efficiency of public administration, as well as give us the signal that the authorities will Not increase the tax burden.
the head of the Russian Federation centuries Putin on 4 December In the Russian leadership will deliver his annual address to Fedarene.
To speak before the meeting, the President will have in the context of weakening of the ruble, low oil prices And, as a consequence of disappointing macroeconomic forecast, which on Tuesday presented the Ministry of economic development.
The Ministry on Tuesday unveiled an updated macro prognosis for 2014-2015. According to the forecast, the decline of the economy in the coming year will be 0, 8%, the main " hit " will have for the first half, and after a possible rebound. Dollar in 2015 would have cost about 49 dollars, the oil - $ 80 per barrel, while inflation will be 7, 5%, believe in the Ministry.
" I guess Not address matters of wealth of the Russian economy is simply impossible, because they are very sensitive at the present time for the residents, this price increase And the decrease of the exchange rate, And this psychologically important thing for the mood of the Russian society, as prices for petroleum products. For this reason I Think that the economic problems in the President's message will be given to many places, " says the Advisor of the Institute of contemporary development Nikita Maslennikov.
" and among them it is clear that neither can the President go past forecasts published yesterday his message to Fedarene. I Think it will give a political signal will be generated political assessment of the situation in which we find ourselves, " said maslennikoff.
The economist believes that the time has come major structural economic reforms, which in the current environment need to bring to completion.
" today it is clear that the vacation of the ruble float freely, which is the head, by the way, supported, means in reality a very large structural reform. But once said " a ", then you need to move around all the other letters of the alphabet And tighten the playfulness of government activities in the focus on structural reforms, the removal of structural constraints to economic improvement of the Russian Federation, " said maslennikoff.
Director of the Institute of strategic analysis FBK Igor Nikolaev, for its part, expects the trend of deterioration of the socio-economic situation of Russia in the medium term.
" Unfortunately, the analysis is Not evidence in favor of the fact that encouraging you to do the assessment. Our analysis says about the fact that the deterioration in the socio-economic situation has become well-established, And that in the medium term, for a few years, " He said.
The business community hopes to hear from the President at least partial easing of the tax burden, the rate at increasing the productivity of the public administration as well as the set of initiatives on the strategy of import substitution.
" I will Not undertake to predict what the reality will tell the Manager. I would like to hear some signals that the economic policy of the country will change No less than the liberal party. I would like to hear the signals that the tax burden on business to grow will Not be that will go No less active And Not less systematic suppression of unlawful acts of officials, which again has an obligation to help the business, " says chief Economist at URALSIB management Alexei Devyatov.
" without a doubt, we Believe that the Manager has confirmed its readiness to commit one of the main conditions of economic life, newwelcome tax burden on business. He is said to " Forum actions " of the front. Believe, because it is quite important for a business position, which is required to detect the reflection in his message, " says the head of RSPP President Alexander Shokhin.
" And, no doubt, we realize, because it involves quite sensitive measures of the balanced budget And optimization of budget, But one way or another, if at this time the head will confirm this thesis, for us, this is, without doubt, will be important, " He said.
" I do not exclude that the head somehow react to such quite popular in the business community, the idea of fiscal moratorium, which from time to time supports a number of politicians and Ministers. I think some response to it must be, " said maslennikoff.
He also emphasizes that the supervisor will assess the external environment, where it is expected to develop the Russian economy And formulate a range of initiatives for the development of non-resource exports.
" great attention will be paid to the Ukraine And the crisis in the South-East. In the context of development in terms of geopolitical risks, the Manager can speak about the need to promote non-oil exports, about the fact that the oil needle, which for many years was sitting Russian economy, in the present case was cracked, And the state oil and gas complex is in a broad sense, a structural problem that requires a solution, besides fast enough. And among them in connection with nesyrjevym exports will be formulated initiatives of the strategy of import substitution And the priority orientation of the government on these issues, " says the Economist.
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