, John Maynard Keynes (Keynes, John Maynard)( The Economist)
Comments for , John Maynard Keynes (Keynes, John Maynard)
Biography , John Maynard Keynes (Keynes, John Maynard)
"In any case, the Keynesian revolution meant the real end of the" doctrine of laisser-faire "(non-interference in the economy. - And. O.). In addition, it was a genuine revolution in economic thought ".
M. Blaug. "Economic thought in retrospect".
"Two thinkers have played a prominent role in the reflection of the revolutionary call of Marx - Ed.Bernshteyn
and Lord J. M. Keynes'.
E. Gaidar. "State and Evolution".
The theoretical heritage of J. M. Keynes
For citizens of countries with modern market economies, as heaven from earth removed from the XIX century capitalism, the name of the British economist John Maynard Keynes, sounds about the same as for the "builders of communism" to the name. Marx. But Marx was a poor prophet: Capitalism is not dead, entangled in its own contradictions, but socialism has neither legal nor a worthy successor. And if the development of capitalism has gone through other means, then this is in no small measure must J. M. Keynes. It was his idea of favoring Wali thorough restructuring of capitalism, . its conversion, . essentially, . a mixed system, . which market mechanisms, . enclosed in a civilized framework of laws and generally accepted rules, . linked to government regulation of the economy,
. His famous book "General Theory of Employment, . Interest and Money, . written in 1936, . Keynes concluded with the words: "Although the expansion of government functions in connection with the task of coordinating the propensity to consume and the inducement to invest vat seemed publicist XIX century and contemporary American financier horrific attack on the basis of individualism, . i, . contrary, . defending it as the only feasible means to avoid the complete destruction of existing economic forms and as a condition for the successful functioning of individual initiative ",
. Here is the prophecy proved correct.
Theoretical views of Keynes shape in alarm, turning to capitalism during. During the first third of the twentieth century it became increasingly apparent that classical capitalism XIX century, based on individual private property and spontaneous market regulation Institute, had gone into the past. The concentration and centralization of capital have created the first large corporations, giant trusts and cartels are able to monopolize the production and industrial markets. And while this contributes to the monopolization of the economic system of the elements of organization and planning, but it is killing the competition and freedom of pricing, threatened to decay and stagnation.
At the same time strengthened the position of trade unions - now they are able to counter the monopoly power of unions by organized labor: it sharply limits the market processes and in determining wages. The economic system of capitalism has lost flexibility. The result was a profound crisis of 1929-1933, followed by prolonged depression, which lasted until the beginning of the Second World War
. Deeper in the history of this event goes, . the clearer it becomes, . that the crisis of the thirties was not just another cyclical crises of overproduction - one of those, . that regularly hit the capitalist economy, . and this was a crisis of the system - a system, . which could no longer functioning vat in the old and in need of deep restructuring of the whole mechanism of its regulation,
. New processes require new ideas, new theoretical synthesis of the changes. That Keynes was destined to become the leader of this new theoretical direction in the economic thought of the West - it was called Keynesianism, - became the antithesis of the prevailing orthodoxy at the time - the neoclassical school.
John Maynard Keynes was born in 1883 in a family that belonged to a new elite of the oldest English University of Cambridge. His father, John Neville Keynes, grew up in a family of small entrepreneurs, but nevertheless won a scholarship, was able to enter and graduate from the University of Cambridge. 60 years of the last century - a period of restructuring the university, when he refused many medieval regulations and turned to reality. Such a shift was particularly noticeable in the "moral sciences" - These included philosophy, political economy and psychology. The university began to emerge and new people who belonged to the middle class, not so rigidly adhering to traditions and orthodox thinking.
In the late 70-ies father Keynes himself becomes a teacher of logic several colleges at Cambridge University, including women, had just formed - clear evidence of the depth of change which took place in the world. Here, according to one biographer of Keynes, among the "strange new to female, he met his future wife, Ada Brown, Floris. Apparently, she was very strong particularly when, defying the harsh rules of their Victorian era and religious family, the age of seventeen went to get higher education in the newly opened women's college.
The boy grew up in a family, eagerly absorbing new ideas and aspirations. Add to this the enthusiasm, ambition and originality of thought: no matter where he was studying, he became a prominent participant throughout the discussion of various clubs and associations. And he studied the young John Maynard in the most aristocratic school - at Eton, was a member of the debating club at Eton College, uniting its intellectual and social elite. The terms of his interests ranged from mathematics to Greek and Latin poets, which he enthusiastically translated. It lay in the direct path of the aristocratic college of the University of Cambridge - Kingdom of sky, where Keynes was also a member of the elected (and, moreover, a secret) group of intellectuals - "Cambridge Apostles".
In this society (and still exist in Cambridge), Keynes had read his first work on the problems of ethics and at the same time - on the theory of probability. After all, Keynes began with mathematics. However, over time, his interests switched to economy. After graduation in 1908 he became professor of economic theory, and this relationship with Cambridge persists for life - until his death was his "academic home".
But not in the nature of Keynes only be an academic economist. Chairman of a major insurance company and investment manager, . the owner of the weekly Nation, . which then merged with the absorbed them the magazine New Statesman, . and for many years (from 1911 to 1945) - editor's theoretical organ of British economists "Economics Journal, . member of the elite community of philosophers, . writers and artists - "Blumsberriyskogo club" - this is not a complete list of areas it chastnopred-prinimatelskoy, . social and intellectual activity,
. Besides, he - the patron of the theater, ballet, collector, bibliophile.
Innate ambition, knowledge, desire to participate in the practical "settling" of the world and spurred his desire for a career in politics. It is no accident theoretical studies Kane-sa were closely associated with his public service and practice. While still at university, Keynes spent two years working in the Ministry of Finance in the Department of Indian Affairs. Result: the first major economic study - "The Indian monetary system and Finance" (1913).
Since the beginning of the First World War, Keynes had an economic adviser in the Ministry of Finance. Moreover, as the representative of the ministry he is involved in the Paris peace conference after World War I, where they signed the Treaty of Versailles. However, Keynes made a sharp criticism of the treaty, regarding it as a threat to the postwar development of capitalism in Europe. In protest, he resigned as adviser to the British delegation. Their views on the Treaty of Versailles and the post-war development of Europe, he describes in two articles, immediately brought him immense fame: "The economic consequences of the Versailles Peace" and "Revision of the peace treaty" (1919).
In 20-ies he is beginning to pay more attention to the problems of currency, nurturing the idea of replacing the gold standard (when possible exchange of bank notes for gold coins), a regulated exchange ( "Treatise on Monetary Reform", 1923).
In 1925, Keynes married. His chosen ones were Russian ballerina Lydia Lopukhova - Lopokova, as it was called in England. (Lydia Lopukhova was born in 1891 in St. Petersburg in the family theater usher Aleksandrinsky Basil Lopukhov. All of his children - two daughters and two sons - were ballet dancers, ballet school after graduating from Petersburg. The most famous of them - Fyodor Lopukhov Soviet choreographer and a pioneer in the years led the ballet troupe of Petrograd, then Leningrad Skog Opera and Ballet, the Kirov, organized a ballet troupe Leningrad Maly Theater. Lydia is famed abroad, where she traveled with a group of Diaghilev. Keynes had met her in 1918 when, following the Paris Dyagilev entreprise shook his art a London audience.)
Lydia Keynes twice visited the Soviet Union - in 1925 and 1928. These visits gave him the opportunity to express their attitude to what happened then in our country. It should be noted that the initial attitude of Keynes was inhomoge-digit. He believed that the communist system could exist, but only at very low efficiency. Moreover, Keynes saw in Bolshevizia IU, with all its "cruelty and stupidity", and some light at the end of the tunnel. In the article "A brief impression of Soviet Russia", . written in the same 1925, . criticizing Bolshevism for NEP, . he still saw it as a force, . able to construct a new system, . condemning the personal enrichment and filling the new religion of society - the "new faith",
. In this he saw his advantage over the "lack of spirituality" of capitalism.
But deception did not last long. After the second visit in 1928, Keynes finally came to the conclusion that the price of "new faith" is too high. "They care more about the experiment than that to do business," - he wrote in one letter. Experience Russia, . which evolved totalitarian system in the face of fierce comprehensive planning and administrative management, . and its results clearly convinced, . that elected them by way of "doing business" - on the basis of indirect, . financial regulation free market economy - is the only effective,
. Negative attitudes to planning, Keynes maintained, even during the war, when many were inclined it to the planning of the economy. In the article "How to pay for war," the scientist stressed that his project holds "a clear line of separation between the totalitarian and the freest economy".
However, Russia's case briefly occupied Keynes. It attracts mainly a problem of existence and further development of the capitalist system
. In November 1929, . when the collapse of the U.S. stock market has already announced the beginning of the deepest in the history of capitalism the world economic crisis, . Keynes was appointed a member of the British government's Committee on Finance and Industry,
. In the same year he received the post of chairman of the Economic Council of the Government on the problems of unemployment.
Just at this time went two-volume work "A Treatise on Money (1930), which summarizes his views on the functioning of the monetary system of capitalism. During this period, Keynes came to the final conclusion, . that all economic theory - and not just the monetary aspects - needs a radical update: needed to bring theory into line with new economic realities, . characterize the capitalism of the twentieth century,
. This idea is born of the "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money," which he published in 1936. It is in this work laid the foundations of a new theory, justify the need for government intervention in the economy and the choice of the basic tools of its regulation
. It should, . By that time, Keynes had already sufficiently high authority: his theoretical development and Kie new doctrine of economic policy have attracted attention not only to academic, . but the governments of capitalist countries, . desperate search for a way out of a deep crisis of 1929-1933 and its consequences - long for Economic stagnation,
Since the beginning of the Second World War Keynes - Advisor to the Ministry of Finance, as well as one of the directors of the Bank of England. He serves on a number of fundamental practical problems of his country: on the problems of war finance - at the beginning of the war and the problems of social security and employment - at the end of. But the most important is its role in the development of the foundations of the postwar international monetary relations, . which were noted by the Bretton Woods Conference (1944) and led to the creation in 1946 of the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,
Also in 1946 Keynes was not. Biographer scientist P. Skidelsky wrote that Keynes himself composed his epitaph. These words were translated by him in his student years poems medieval thinker Bernard of Cluny (XI century). I can not bring them here, here they are in my translation:
To access voice of the universe,
Who the world is their humility,
Those honor - they are blessed.
Doubly Well worth the one who is given
The slightest sound, tone-deaf crowd
Who could foresee the white robes
On those hills, where the dusty trail.
And let the music he could not tell
About what I saw there,
He had a moment of happiness come to know,
There is no reason tears.
Thus, Keynes came to the conclusion that the capitalist economy should be regulated. He identified the parameters of the economic system, which should be subject to such regulation, and advanced methods of management, based on the theory, as outlined in the paper "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money". Keynes's book literally revolutionized modern theory, and he entered the history of economic thought called "Keynesian Revolution". That is the essence of the fundamental ideas of the revolution: a mature capitalist economy has no tendency to automatically achieve economic equilibrium, . that is, to use all its resources - production capacity, . labor, . savings, . - And therefore subject to periodic crises, . and often chronic unemployment,
The old economic theory (neoclassical school) stated: long-term imbalance in the society can not be, because this can never be. Namely. Demand for the goods produced with the use of existing resources, itself creates demand, and the equality of demand and supply is established through a flexible price system. If the offer exceeds demand, prices will fall and the balance is restored, and vice versa, if there is a shortage of some resources or commodities, their prices will rise, and re-establish economic balance. This argument is extended to the resource such as labor. The mobility of wages, ie, the price of labor, was considered a basic condition for its full use, full employment.
Well, according to Keynes and his followers, "spoiled" in this ideal arrangement, but perhaps never fully and did not exist? First, prices. They have lost the ability to change rapidly under the influence of fluctuations in demand and supply. This was especially true of wages, the establishment of which was rather a matter of trade unions, rather than the result of market forces. Secondly, uncertainty and lack of perfect information, which distorts market signals, especially on monetary and financial markets
. But if the mechanism of balancing supply and demand fails, . and then the demand is often less than the level, . needed, . to make full use of productive resources and implement all manufactured goods, . it is the demand, . according to Keynes, . and should become the focus of economic research,
, Keynes did just this: he based his entire macroeconomic theory of the so-called effective demand across the country. Effective demand consists of demand for consumption goods (ie consumer demand) and demand for capital goods (ie the investment demand).
"Turned everything upside down, and the night is now considered the day" - wrote in a jocular poem "Threnody to the economic theory of" American economist Dr.. Bai. If previously assumed, . that it is the availability of economic resources and the effectiveness of their use determine the value of real production and supply of goods, . and hence the overall level of national income, . Keynes's theory to formulate the problem in exactly the opposite: it is the demand determines, . how much will be invested and produced,
. And if so, then the level and variability of demand depends on the dynamics of national income and directly related to her level and fluctuations in employment.
But what determines the main components of effective demand - consumption and investment? Which variables, in turn, depends on their change? This is a crucial part of the Keynesian theory. From it depends on the choice of just those parts of the economic system, which must have become objects of state regulation.
According to Keynesian theory, consumer demand is a decreasing function of income. This means that the higher the national income (or income of individual groups of the population), the lower the share of consumer spending in it. In other words, the propensity to consume decreases. This means that saving is a growing part of national income. But the savings can not lie as dead capital. They should invest in one or another production, otherwise the economy will decline and unemployment will rise. Hence need a corresponding demand for savings, ie the investment demand HYDRATED.
The latter, in turn, is determined by two moments - the expected benefits from investments and interest rate on bank loans, which forms the lower limit of profitable investment. The lower interest rate, the greater may be the expected profit, the higher the propensity to invest. Conversely, the inability to reduce interest - the most important limitation of the first investment process. After all, if all income from investments, which are largely made through bank loans, will have to pay a creditor, then the investor will lose incentives to investment. (Incidentally, in our situation, namely the high bank interest rates are one of the biggest brakes on the start of investment activity.)
. And what determines the level of interest rates? In Keynesian theory, it is closely related to the magnitude of money demand, which, in turn, consists of two components
. The first - known as the transactions demand, ie the demand for money: if incomes rise, the increase in the number of transactions. And the second component - the so-called speculative demand, is born the state of risk and uncertainty raising at the financial markets. This latter type of demand is very capricious and unstable. Therefore, associated with it, the desire to preserve cash - the tendency to liquidity. This tendency, according to Keynes, and affects the interest rate level, defining its fluctuations: the greater the desire to hold cash, the higher the interest rate. Conversely, the weaker the tendency to liquidity, the lower the interest rate, the stronger the incentive to invest
. As seen, . consumption and investment is influenced by many variables, . and subject to rigid (or weakly reactive) prices, . Keynesian theory argues, . this may lead to such a level of effective demand, . which does not make full use of production and human resources,
. There is a state called "equilibrium with underemployment". If, . Recall, . in the neoclassical theory of equilibrium achieved by price adapted PRINCIPLES FOR GOOD GOVERNANCE, . that is flexible changes in relative prices, . that the Keynesian theory that balance can be achieved only by changing the variables, . that influence the effective demand,
These basic variables and dependencies (whatever they may be refined and developed no later supporters of Keynes) are not merely an abstract theoretical. As Keynes wrote, "Our ultimate goal is the selection of those variables that may be under conscious control or management of central authority in the real system, in which we live".
These variables are dictated the choice of two main instruments for regulating the effective demand - government spending, or more - the state budget as a whole (including taxes) and monetary policy.
State expenditures (including those that are financed with the budget deficit), Keynes and his followers believed the most convenient and effective way to increase effective demand during the economic crisis or depression. Then the increase in incomes of the population can, in their view, to engage in active operation of the unused production capacity, to give employment to the unemployed, contribute to the overall economic revival. Moreover, it is theoretically possible to establish precise quantitative relationship between increased spending and subsequent growth of national income, measured by a specific number - the multiplier.
The point is, they believed that each portion of such costs becomes a primary income, then part of them, spending, converted into secondary, tertiary in income and t. d. Costs, in turn, gets involved in the production of free, unoccupied resources - production is growing, and with it the increased level of national income. As a result, the overall effect of the multiplier process and the very magnitude of multiplicative torus depend on what proportion of income is divided into consumption and saves part. The larger part of income is consumed, the more revenue will rise to the original amount of money spent, the higher the final increment of the national income.
The simplest illustration of this process can serve as a formula for infinite geometric progression. If A - initial cost, turned into income, and r - the share of consumption of these costs (the rest - saving), then the whole chain costs will be expressed by the formula:
. Emphasize: counting on the catalytic role of public spending, Keynesians believed that the increase in such costs will just rise in economic activity, and not turn into a price increase
. (Such an increase, they believed, could only begin to achieve full employment and full capacity utilization.) Along with the growth of public expenditure of considerable importance was attached, and tax cuts, mostly for promoting investments.
An important addition to this fiscal policy, as already stated, was the monetary policy. By changing the value of the money supply (through the emission or other instruments of its regulation), this policy is to influence the level of interest rates.
It should be emphasized that Keynes did not advocate such direct forms of state intervention STVA as the nationalization of state property or state enterprise. "Do not ownership of the means of production is essential for the state. If the state could determine the total amount of resources devoted to increasing the means of production, and the basic rate of remuneration of owners of these resources, this would be it achieved all that is needed "- wrote it
. The ups and downs of Keynesian economic policy
. After the Second World War until the mid 70's, the belief in the power of Keynesian economic policies that can resolve the contradictions of capitalist reproduction has been steadily strengthened
. Expanded the scope of state intervention. There has been a multilateral process of "nationalization of economic science" - it appeared in the mass involvement of academic economists to serve in government and parastatal institutions engaged in economic expertise. There were various "think tanks" have become transformers of theoretical ideas into practical recommendations to the Government.
The steadily rising government spending, as evidenced by the figures showing the change in the percentage of total government spending (central and local authorities) in the gross national product (GNP) of some developed countries.
As you can see from the table below, to the mid-70's this share, compared with the prewar period almost doubled. (In Germany, . already in 1938, was preparing to wage war, . and because the state's share in GNP of this country was very high.) This increase was primarily associated with particularly rapid growth in social spending, . that, . course, . contributed to the increase in consumer demand - not without reason Keynesians rightly saw this as an important stimulus for economic growth,
. The numbers vividly show the next table: the rate of growth in social spending in those years, nearly one and a half times the rate of growth of gross national product, . that gave a sharp increase in the share of social expenditures in total expenditures of these countries,
This development is fully consistent with Keynesian ideas on the objectives of economic policy. Priorities for the same role in those allotted to achieve full employment, stabilization, or at least even out cyclical fluctuations in the economy, increasing economic growth. A cost increase, that is, purchasing power, and consistent with the wishes of the general population, making such a policy is particularly popular. Moreover, at first, when inflationary pressures have not yet made themselves felt, the rise in prices was almost imperceptible (about this inflation - 2.5% per year - referred to as "creeping" inflation). It would seem that Keynesianism at all times proved that the economy is to change the money demand reacts quickly change the real level of production than the price increases.
Keynesian concept of macroeconomic policy was based not only on the large budgetary expenditures of the state. It included three important points.
The first one is not supposed to abide strictly balance the state budget, ie, equality of income and expenditures of the state that has always been considered the main criterion for a wise fiscal policy. It was assumed that balancing the budget should not happen every year, and over the economic cycle, when the excess revenue to the treasury during the period of recovery could compensate for a lack of budgetary funds, which emerged in the crisis.
The second point - the development of the theory of deficit financing of public spending by printing money and government loans. And, finally, the third - a new understanding of the role of monetary control as a tool that supports, above all, fiscal policy, rather than a healthy non-inflationary monetary system. This meant the shift of priorities in the work of the central bank - that the main instrument of monetary policy. If a sound currency required a tough anti-inflationary policy, regardless of market conditions, . now, monetary policy was meant to participate in the regulation of effective demand: to increase the monetary expansion during the recession and limit it only in conditions of economic recovery,
. As a result, the concept of Keynesian macroeconomic policy opened the door for expansionary monetary policy, . which was not so much to maintain the stability of the monetary system, . much help to increase spending and stimulate economic growth in general,
The crisis of Keynesianism: the causes and consequences
But times have changed. By the beginning of 70-ies completed a period of high economic growth. The two energy crisis plunged the economy of developed countries in the second half of the 70's in a long period of stagflation - a period when an unusually fast rates began to rise, while at the same time was a decline in production. Inflation became a problem number one.
Traditionally, the concept of Keynesian economic policy on inflation is not expected. Underestimating the risk of inflation, it is its emphasis on the growth of public spending and deficit financing of the economy, in fact, she facilitated the development of inflation. If in the 60 years of budget deficits were a rarity, then after 70 they had already sustained. Extent to which budget deficits are reached, the figures show a 45 page.
It is no accident priority financial policies of governments of all developed countries has been improvement of public finances and reducing budget deficits.
For inflation, and added something else that has undermined the old concept of regulation - the deterioration of conditions of reproduction, to refocus economic contradictions with the implementation of the tasks on production problems. Increasing the degree of "openness" of the economy: the internationalization and strengthening of foreign economic relations. The inefficiency generated by the growth of the state apparatus and its bureaucracy. All these factors caused great dissatisfaction with the Keynesian macroeco nomic policy and sharp criticism throughout the Keynesian theoretical system. She began to attribute all the real and imaginary reasons for the failures of economic development, particularly worsening inflationary trends. The crisis experienced not just a Keynesian theory, but the whole concept of "welfare state", in other words, the concept of broad government regulation of the economy. And this - the social priorities, . significant public sector enterprise, . tion redistribution of national income in favor of increasing public spending, . and, . Finally, . direct regulation of many spheres of private enterprise,
In the end, the triumphant march of Keynesianism as theory and as economic policy in the late 70's - early 80's ended with "Keynesian counterrevolution" and "conservative shift" - in economic theory and policy of all developed countries. Central to the economic theory of the West again took the old neoclassical school, which gave rise to new areas of economic analysis, such as monetarism, the theory of rational expectations, and other.
Proponents of these theories as opposed to Keynesianism believe (and justify it) that should be possible to limit government intervention in the economy and social sphere, to reduce state taxes and spending. Naturally, they also act against the Keynesian macroeconomic policy. State regulation violates the demand, in their view, market forces, but in the long term leads to increased inflationary pressures.
Well-known Italian economist EF. Modigliani very accurately described the line delimiting the supporters of the Keynesian theory (according to him, "nemonetaristov") and their opponents ( "monetarists"). He writes: "Nemonetaristy" recognize - and this I regard as a fundamental practical idea of the "General Theory", . - That the market economy is subject to fluctuations of the total product, . unemployment and prices, . that need to be adjusted, . can be adjusted and therefore must be corrected,
. "Moneyers sty" is considered, . that there is no real need to stabilize the economy until, . while money supply growth should be simple predictable rules, . that even if there were such a need, . we do not have the ability to stabilize its, . and we should not be given administrative bodies with the necessary authority ",
The crisis of Keynesianism to reflect important changes in the economic policies of governments of industrialized countries. Throughout the 80's and 90-ies through the denationalization and privatization have seen a significant reduction in public sector, . decreased rate of growth of public expenditure, . whose share of GDP reached in many European countries 50%,
. Control of fiscal deficits and inflation trends has become paramount.
But it nevertheless does not imply the rejection of Keynesian ideas that need for social and economic stabilization of state intervention. Politics has always been pragmatic - so she remained, and in its arsenal, still retains many of the recommendations that have been substantiated by Keynes and his followers.
Keynesian thought today
So ended a phase in the life of the Keynesian theory, which began in the 30 years of the century. But Keynes's theory itself is still alive and growing in today's. She has never been a set of untouchable dogmas and binding instructions to its supporters. History of Keynesianism - a history of continuous development, adaptation to the changing reality, research and refinements in the theoretical analysis and practical policy.
She passed the phase of "neoclassical synthesis" (60-70's), when the attempt was made to formally join the Keynesian theory with neoclassical. On the basis of Keynesian analysis categories were established neo-Keynesian theory of cyclical economic development and the corresponding theory of economic growth.
Ousting of the neoclassical school on the sidelines of the main directions of "Keynesianism is developing today in a new guise, called" postkeynsianstvo ". Keynesianism was organically related to the current realities of economic development. And this manifests its vitality.
Modern economic theory is impossible without the contribution made J. M. Keynes, especially without its an entirely new section - macroeconomics and the theory of macroeconomic. But the "contribution" - it is something fixed, customary, established. To describe Keynesianism is not enough. "General Theory 'Keynes, . like many of the preceding and following it works (they now constitute 33 volumes of collected works), . become an inexhaustible source of ideas, . which still has great flow of literature, . exegetical, . revising, . criticizing, . develop the theory of Keynes,
. Anyway, every year - and this is no exaggeration - brings to light dozens of new works, one way or another connected with the name and Keynesian. Found an apt title for his work on the theory of Keynes, the English scientist Mr.. K. Shaw - "Permanent Revolution". Indeed, through the revolution and counter-Keynesianism is undergoing a continuous process of change, driven to the motor, which has created and set in motion by its founder.
Retains its continuing importance of the main idea of Keynesianism - the need for state intervention for the sustainable development of the capitalist economy. One can argue about what methods to do this, but the fact that the market mechanism should be complemented by government regulation, in modern politicians is beyond doubt.
And for the most Keynesian inflation 70-ies not been in vain. How do kuyu macroeconomic policies more effective instrument of economic regulation? How to stimulate the growth of production, . without causing (or not supporting) the inflationary trends? How to fight inflation, . without limiting the pace of economic growth and stimulating the unemployment? All this - the central theme of modern Keynesianism,
Together with the conservative wing Keynesian economists now recognize the danger of further growth in public spending and budget deficits. That is why modern Keynesians did not insist on such methods of state regulation of economy. They recognize the need to budget constraints. However, speaking for tighter fiscal policy, justify the need and importance of the use of another management tool - monetary policy. Lower interest rates and increased access to credit, they believe, will contribute to the growth of investment demand and overall economic recovery.
At the same time, economists postkeynsiantsy looking for new ways to combat inflation, which would not lead to a decrease in production and employment. Some of them, an anti-inflationary policy must take into account the parameters that determine the formation of costs and revenues. As an anti-inflationary prescription they offer so-called policy of income, . that is, a voluntary agreement between employers and trade unions on a certain rate of growth of wages, . not to exceed productivity growth, . control prices of natural monopolies and t,
. n. In such a policy seen them the opportunity to simultaneously solve the problems of employment and inflation - that is not in a position to provide traditional fiscal and monetary levers.
Today in our country the name of Keynes is mentioned not only in student lectures. Many proponents of state regulation of the economy, regardless of whether any of the instruments and methods of regulation in question, are ready to build on its credibility. Like, even Keynes was in favor of regulation tion! In fact, everything is not so obvious. First, it must be remembered that the Keynesian theory and policy are based on the existence of a developed market economy. We are in transition to this economy with all its features, absurdities and difficulties. Therefore, direct "imposition" keynsians Coy theory on our economy is not suitable.
Secondly, many of the present "experts" Keynesians criticized tough stabilization policies aimed at reducing the fiscal deficit and inflation. They are attracted by the idea of more active use of fiscal deficits and monetary expansion as the addition of fuel, which supposedly can help economic growth. Likely, . they do not know - but that's the point discussed in this article, . - That deficit financing in an inflationary environment was just so weak point of the Keynesian theory and policy, . which caused a crisis of its previous model and has identified ways to further its correction,
. Therefore, rather should heed the voice of modern postkeynsiantsev, . are advised to refer to budget deficits, extreme caution, . shifting the focus from the budget and the growth of public expenditure on monetary policy as the main instrument of indirect impact on the economy,
. Third, . Our transition requires a special approach to the role of the state, . because this period of time and breaking the old state system management, . and the creation of a new state of the market infrastructure (in the form of laws, . institutions control, . taxes and t,
. etc), without which the market becomes "Wild field" robbery. Besides, transition requires an active structural policy. All these problems are directly related to the theory of Keynes have. But knowing her as well as all the economic theory of the West, and not separate out-of-the historical context of the situation, it is necessary. Knowledge of theories and experiences of developed countries, understanding the conditions under which gives the effect of one or another measure of economic policy, and are able to help and protect it from unnecessary mistakes during experimentation or another "to invent a bicycle".
It is this above all, experience teaches science and practice of the great Englishman John Maynard Keynes.
Glossary to article
State Budget - estimated government revenue and expenditure
. Budget (fiscal) policy (from the ancient Roman "fiscus" - "currency basket") policy - the use of state budget (and it is made up of taxes and expenses) for the regulation of business activity, . stimulate economic growth, . overcome recession, . combat inflation, and t,
The fiscal deficit - the excess of public expenditure over income, covered either through borrowing or through currency issue (additional printing money).
GNP - gross national product - summarizing a statistical indicator of economic activity of the country. Represents the value of all goods and services produced in the country, taking into account the income (interest, profits and dividends) received its representatives (residents) abroad
. Monetary policy (monetary policy) - Activities of the central bank, . to increase or decrease the money supply in the country in order to regulate the economic environment, . curb inflation, . stimulate economic growth and t,
Investment - capital invested in construction, production, modernization of equipment, in research and t. d.
Inflation - a steady rise in prices, leading to the depreciation of the currency. The main cause of inflation - excessive growth of money supply. On the rise in prices may affect other factors associated with increased costs.
Macroeconomic policies - regulation of economic activity by influencing the level of consumption and investment, as well as the money supply by means of fiscal and monetary policy.
Monetarism - the direction of economic thought, to deny - as opposed to Keynesianism - the need for state regulation of economic activity. Prefers Noah inflationary policies aimed at maintaining the stability of the monetary system.
Multiplier - the Keynesian theory - is a coefficient characterizing the growth of national income as a result of initially used amount of money - in public spending or investment.
Interest rate - a fee charged for the money provided in the credit.
Savings - part of the income not spent on consumption. They determine the amount of financial resources that can be used for investment.
Tendency to liquidity - the desire to save any cash, either in the form of assets that can be quickly converted into cash.
The theory of rational expectations - antikeynsianskoe direction of economic thought, it Justifying em futility of government intervention in the operation of market mechanisms with a view to regulating economic activity Niya.
Economic cycle - a regular change of phases of boom and bust level of business activity in market economy.
Effective demand - effective demand for goods and services to consumer and industrial purpose.