What is the real number of jobless in Russia?
Chief economist Deutsche Bank in Moscow
The rapid increase of unemployment in January indicates that many dismissals were postponed until the beginning of the year and that companies will keep on cutting their costs this year. Rosstat`s figures are pretty precise, as they take into account the shadow economy as well.
However, the real unemployment rate could be even higher because the cutback most of all affected migrants, who are only partly accounted for. Although they are not Russian citizens, their leaving the country influenced consumption severely. Those statistics also do not take into account people who have a job on paper only, but are effectively on leave without pay. I suspect that, starting from the second quarter, unemployment will fall.
Vladimir Tikhomirov, Chief economist Uralsib
I fully trust Rosstat`s figures. The labour market slip is predictable for the beginning of the year, this is a purely seasonal factor I assume. Most people have their part-time job finished by the end of the year and employers do not hire a lot in January because of long state holidays. Moreover the main sectors that suffered due to the crisis are real estate, construction and sectors relevant to them, and we all know that winter months are not busy for construction crews. Last year the dynamic was the same - we saw growth of hiring starting from April.
Vladimir Bragin, Strategist, Trust Bank
The growth of unemployment is reasonable for January because many firms reduce staff at the end of the year. But this time it turned out to be higher than I had expected. In some sectors of the economy, the car industry for instance, it could be even higher if there wasn`t a governmental ban on cutting staff. By the end of the year, the it could be even higher - 10 per cent probably, if government and local authorities don`t restrain this process. Anyway, some companies will have to optimise their work.
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