Analysts: punishment concerning the oil industry will hit shelf projects
Another punishment of the European Union is now on the Russian oil sector is hit, the 1st turn on offshore projects and development of hard-to-recover reserves, said many of the respondents Last news analysts.
On Tuesday evening it was announced that the EU countries have reached a preliminary agreement on introduction of economic sanctions concerning Russia in connection with the situation in Ukraine. For example, the EU Council made a decision to limit the export to the Russian Federation of equipment For the oil industry, has informed Agency Bloomberg referring to an informed source. Economic penalties have the opportunity to be reviewed after 3 months.
last week the US expanded punishment concerning Russia. The list has been Gazprombank, Vnesheconombank, Rosneft and NOVATEK. The US did not attempt to interfere with the daily activities of these organizations and credit institutions, meanwhile, have closed access to financial markets of the country, banning U.S. companies and individuals to give them loans for the period More than 90 days.
Potential victims, European punishments are projects on the shelf and hard-to-recover oil reserves, the experts say.
" most likely, the majority of limits will affect the service the service, supply of equipment For drilling, Geophysics. This is the equipment that will be used For shelf exploration and development of unconventional oil ", - the analyst of " Sberbank CIB " Valery Nesterov. The specialist explained that most of drilling components, such as those associated with hydraulic fracturing, are supplied to the Russian Federation from abroad.
according to the feedback loop, despite the fact that a new round of sanctions the EU relates to the equipment For the oil sector, it will affect the gas sphere, since the technologies and equipment used in the oil and gas sectors are very close. For example, in the opinion of the analyst, the strongest may affect the project's largest independent gas producer in Russia NOVATEK " Yamal LNG ", implemented together with France's Total (20% in the project).
" It is a project of NOVATEK is tied to the European contractors - contractor of the project is the French Technip, a supplier of gas turbines - German Siemens. In General Russian organizations depend more on American contractors, " said Nesterov, adding that under attack also get Russian drilling organization.
But on Tuesday, the US said that in the near future have the opportunity to apply additional sanctions against Russia.
for his part, the head of the Fund for national energy Konstantin Simonov was surprised at the decision of the EU to enter punishment on supply of equipment For the oil sector." There are a number of projects on the territory of the Russian Federation, where the European organizations already involved, projects already started work. This is not Exxon with its Arctic, where else " didn't do nothing ". This Total in the Kharyaga (with a share of 40% - as amended), Sakhalin projects, Yamal. This already existing factories and projects " - listed Simonov.
" at this stage, the effect in the next two to three years will be minimal, and If the punishment for This time will be cancelled (which Is entirely possible), the situation will return To normal. If the punishment will be delayed and expands, it is possible effect of lower output in prospect till 2020 within 10-20 million tons (oil - editor) a year. This is the hard-to-recover oil, which will not extracted ", - has assessed the situation Nesterov from Sberbank KIB.
Meanwhile, experts believe that the effect may be much weaker than hoped the West." Part of the effect is compensated by the fact that the joint oil workers will switch to Asian manufacturers of equipment, such as Chinese. We now buy Chinese drilling equipment, machines that are not inferior to European, " said Nesterov.
In summary, the expert paid attention that this whole situation gives a powerful impetus To the development of import substitution and Russia has good chances to replace foreign equipment equipment for their production.
More pessimistic analyst Investkafe " Gregory), according to which the introduction of additional sectoral punishment from Europe will have a very negative impact on the activity of the Russian organizations.
" To maintain the level of production in Mature fields, and To develop new oil and gas fields and the implementation of projects for construction of LNG plants and other infrastructure simply cannot do without foreign technologies and experience. Narrowing commercial cooperation of foreign and Russian organizations will adversely affect the implementation of many projects and impact in practice all organizations without exception ", - said).
Speaking about whether to wait continuation of European sanctions on the Russian oil industry, experts agree that the West will not do It.
" We supply in the European Union More than 30% of oil and gas (of the total needs), they have not expressed interest in reductions of deliveries, That's exactly right. Their punishment is considerable, but not radical and does not represent a serious, long-term hazard ", - said Nesterov.