Mukhanov: Russia can convince Baku and Yerevan not to aggravate the conflict
The main outcome of the upcoming first day weekend in Sochi bilateral meetings of the President of Russian Federation Vladimir Putin with the leaders of Azerbaijan And Armenia Ilham Aliyev And Serzh Sargsyan can be That Moscow will manage to convince the parties to the conflict not to translate it into a " hot phase ", says Russian expert Vadim Mukhanov.
Senior scientific worker of the Center of Caucasus And regional security MGIMO Mukhanov expects That one of the key topics to be discussed by the leaders, is the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.
" without a doubt, are important on the background of alarm messages originating from the line of contact - specifically from the zone of the Karabakh conflict, And those alarming message that appeared specifically with the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, which does not contact with Karabakh, " he said. Specialist regrets about the fact That the format of the meeting will be bilateral, and not triangular.
recent days have seen a sharp escalation of tensions in the conflict area. The ceasefire has repeatedly been violated. According to the information of the defense Ministry of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, recently lost his life 25 Azerbaijani And five Armenian soldiers. According to the information of the Ministry of defense of Azerbaijan, the losses from the Azerbaijani side was 12 soldiers, and Armenia has lost a large number of personnel."
anyway " in light of this important peacekeeping mediating role of Russia ", believes Mukhanov. In his vision, " the main result of these meetings - If you manage to convince the parties to the conflict not to make efforts in the future to the defrosting the conflict And the translation of the conflict into a hot phase ".
" If you still conflict will be frozen And will not start a large-scale combat operations, it, undoubtedly, will be the success of Russia ", - explained the expert.
The General Director of the political conjuncture Center Sergey Mikheev of the long term effect after negotiations - final settlement of the conflict not hopeful." What can be done in the Karabakh settlement of any Broker? The mediator may try to persuade the parties not to use force to abandon some drastic action And hasty conclusions. But the Karabakh conflict is absolutely dead-end. Here neither Russia nor Europe nor the United States nor any state to do anything not have the opportunity, " he said.
for reviews of the analyst, the positions of the sides - Azerbaijan And Armenia - just the opposite And totally incompatible." No compromise no one of the parties does not recognize. For this reason, to resolve the conflict in this situation, in my vision, it is impossible. But Yerevan And Baku alternately shift the responsibility on different intermediaries, and among them the Russian Federation. They essentially are not able to solve this issue, " Mikheev said.
During negotiations of the Russian And Armenian presidents will, for example, discussed the process of Armenia's joining the Eurasian economic Union (EEU).
According to Mikheev, on the accession of Yerevan to the Treaty on the EEU affected by two factors, And both say not in favor of Armenia's membership in the Alliance." The first problem is purely internal. Within Armenia successful acts of the Pro-Western lobby, Authorized American And European Diaspora, which affect the situation, actively enough bribe politicians, experts, journalists, working with non-governmental organizations - from grant support to direct bribes. And even threaten to build some excitement on the type of the Ukrainian Maidan, " said the analyst.
The second problem, according to him, the external. Kazakhstan And Belarus have certain doubts on the issue of Armenia's membership in the Eurasian Union because of the weakness of the Armenian economy.
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