Ruble falls seventh day in a row
Dmitry Mayorov. The ruble against the dollar and the Euro in anticipation of the day continues to lose ground amid heightened geopolitical risks and uncertain dynamics of oil prices.
The value of the currency basket increases the seventh day in a row and have already gained about 2 roubles (4, 8%). So, the rate at which the Central Bank is guided in its exchange rate policy, steadily approaching the upper limit of the floating corridor 35, 4-44, 4 ruble, at which the Governor will come with unlimited currency interventions to support the ruble. However, the corridor will be adjusted upwards by 5 cents for each accumulation of interventions in the amount of $ 350 million.
The Euro has updated its highest level since late April, rising to 50, 1925 ruble, the dollar is approaching the level in 39 rubles (already climbed to 38, 82 rubles).
The dollar calculations " tomorrow " to 10. 50 MSK increased by 41 penny - 38, 79 ruble (increased to 38, 82 ruble, the Euro - 49 cents, 50, 13 ruble (increased to 50, 19 rubles), follows from the data of capital exchange. The value of the currency basket (0, 55 dollars and 0.45 euros) grew by 44 pennies compared with the level it was last closed and was equal to 43, 89 roubles (increased to 43, 92 rubles).
Geopolitical tensions in the EU persists and even intensifies, says Vladimir Kolychev of " VTB Capital ".
in this case, We mean not only the Ukrainian crisis, because the agreement to stop the fire generally observed in response to fresh penalties West Russia is in no hurry to enter their measures, and the actual implementation of the Treaty on unification of Ukraine with the EU is delayed until 2016, " he said.
" Worried about the referendum on Scottish independence, conceived on the coming Thursday, and represents a real surprise because none of the parties have no tangible advantage. The main risks associated with foreign national money: whether an independent Scotland bind to the pound or the Euro (both imply a lack of surveillance over monetary policy) or find a third way?" says Kolychev.
The main danger for the ruble At the present time lies in the mass of dollarization of savings of citizens of Russia, but looking at the March volume conversion (about $ 12 billion), even the current levels of the ruble remain in the safe, the analyst says.
" We believe that stable geopolitical risks and prices of petroleum products (about 95-100 per barrel) the dollar is bound to fluctuate in the range of 37-38 rubles. If the dollar / ruble exchange Rate will exceed 39, the CBR May protect the national currency, to reduce the risk of destabilization of the financial system. Regardless of market expectations, the Bank of Russia Until not introduced a new tool to maintain liquidity in foreign currency, However, If the shortage continues to grow, it is possible to run reverse currency swaps, " added Kolychev.
The mood in foreign markets Until not conducive to the growth of demand for risky assets and currencies, the most in the beginning of the meeting the U.S. Federal reserve, which can again be expressed support for the dollar, analysts said the Bank " Zenit ".
" Oil prices and the negative comparable commodity currencies of emerging economies have also put pressure on the ruble. In these conditions, the basket can approach the boundary of the interventions of the Central Bank (44, 40 rubles), then we might expect a deeper correction reduction of foreign currency. As long as it is not necessary to hope launched the tax period, in the current circumstances, the activity of exporters on the implementation of the foreign currency may be minimal, " put in the Bank " Zenit ".
the decrease in quotations of the national currency is in its final stage, and soon We will see a correction in favour of the strengthening of the ruble, Alexander potvin of organization Management Savings.
Comparing bullish pulses (horse racing) the Australian dollar/ruble on the charts since 2008, it is easy to see that they are Usually 4, 5-5, 5 rubles, says Vladislav Antonov from Alpari.
" From the June minimum 33, 54 growth exceeds 5 rubles. For this reason, we can say that the dollar/ruble is located in the district, which may result in profit. The trigger to lock in profits From the long currency positions may be easing the sanctions regime, " said Antonov.
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