Kalecki: " day of silence " in Ukraine is strongly influenced by the global economy
The successful observance of the ceasefire regime in Ukraine is Not only important geopolitical event, But has great importance For the world economy, a Reuters journalist, economist Anatole, Kalecki.
" Day of silence " demonstrated That the cease-fire in Ukraine for the most part, respected, And refutes the confidence to practice all Western experts about the fact That the war will resume soon, emphasizes Kalecki. It is possible That a conflict will soon acquire the status of " frozen ", similar To deadlock situations, which, for example, exist in Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kosovo, Cyprus And Israel. But even despite the fact That No one will be completely satisfied with the results of the confrontation, Ukraine, Russia And Europe, and in addition, all interested in the life of the world economy, you should breathe a sigh of relief, said the journalist.
As for Ukraine, to discuss the loss of the Crimea is inappropriate, as part of the Peninsula was somehow put into the hiring of Russia, and in addition, did Not belong to Ukraine until 1954, he Kalecki. Loss of Donbass much more serious, as it is the main industrial region, However, according to the Creator of the article, a large part of the profits from these industries And before the fall was concentrated in the hands of corrupt bureaucrats And oligarchs, for this reason now finding plants under the control of the militia, is Not such a big role. Although extremely unlikely That Ukraine will be adopted in the European Union or NATO, the country should hope That eventually she will be able to restore trade relations With Russia, which together With the European is the only way to Kiev to restore And maintain economic viability, reported in the publication.
If we talk about Russia, it reviews Kalecki should Not assume That Russia will qualify for any other Ukrainian territory. If the truce continues, we can expect That the European Union States will Not extend sanctions against Russia And they will automatically cease to operate in March And in July. On the background of falling oil prices And other unfavorable factors, it is beginning to rebuild the economy And in the near future, in the opinion of the author, may depart from the West And to join the Asian model of economic development.
For Europe " frozen " conflict in Ukraine will have both pros And cons. On the one hand, at present the Ukrainian crisis is the main single obstacle To the economic recovery of Europe, And If the aggravation in the East of Ukraine will continue, it will deal a serious blow to European business. On the reverse side, the situation in Ukraine shows That the borders of the European countries still have the opportunity to change under the influence of other States. However, in this case, Europe should Not forget That in the world the principle of sovereignty is violated, and among them such countries as USA, UK And France, reminiscent of Anatole, Kalecki.
Most of all, the West should worry question That the Russian Federation is distancing itself from the European Union And rapprochement With China. Anyway, taking into account the strength of the EU's ties With China And With Russia, it is hoped That even If Moscow will adopt the Asian economic model, the European Union will eventually have the opportunity of cooperating With Russia.