The Chinese refused to carry gas from the United States. Although they were offered a billion for it
It was announced that the Chinese ENN withdraw from the agreement for the acquisition of Toshiba's us assets in the area of LNG. In short: This is a positive For the Russian Federation event.
China will buy less LNG to US, And that means, to compensate for these volumes by purchase from other suppliers, such as Russia. And now the interesting Part.
From the very beginning, back in 2013, Japan's Toshiba has agreed With owners of the company Freeport LNG on the rights of liquefaction of gas. The enterprise was planned, currently it is being built, the launch of the first phase planned for the current year. We are in the deal was about 2, 2 million tons of LNG per year for 20 years, the cost of question - about seven billion dollars for it. We will not bore the reader with details of the calculations, But say that the price of the liquefaction in this case is almost $ 120 per thousand cubic meters, in fact approaching the upper limit of the cost of liquefaction, even among competing American factories. But in 2013, prices of petroleum products was at one hundred dollars per barrel, And in these conditions, us LNG (And the prices are linked To domestic gas prices in the US) looked cheap. It is important to note that to surrender the rights of liquefaction is Impossible. More precisely, you can refuse only in the end will have to pay.
When in 2015 the prices of petroleum products, And together With them And the price of LNG in the world (With reference To oil) declined, Toshiba realized that nothing went into non-core asset: a chance for easy money was replaced by the problem of loss minimization. Besides, the organization is no trading of its fleet For the export of LNG. In the end, the Japanese managed to find a buyer in the face of Chinese ENN.
ENN - (with respect to three oil and gas giants China) small But fast growing company involved in the majority of the distribution of natural gas And LNG in China. This is one of the few companies in China outside the "big three" (CNPC, Sinopec, CNOOC), invested in its own terminal for liquefied natural gas in China, as well As entering into contracts, And invest in assets that allow us to buy more LNG abroad.
Perhaps against a new player in the person of ENN could Not go to count on world market for the best rules of contracts, for this reason the deal With Toshiba, signed in the fall of 2018, it seemed acceptable. Especially since the pay was Not necessary.
Because of the transfer of its LNG units in the US, the Foundation of which, that is, And is entitled to liquefaction (And at the same time the obligation to pay), Toshiba had to pay Myself (!) ENN 800 million dollars.
by the numbers: right to liquefaction are about seven billion, in fact Toshiba gives ENN a discount of More than ten % of the commitments to pay the Price of liquefaction. The purchase unit is For ENN symbolic scales of main amounts to fifteen million.
And now the deal is falling apart. Toshiba shares responded with a decrease of a few % (that is, the transaction was considered by the participants of the market positively For the Japanese organization even With the surcharge the Chinese ENN).
Officially it breaks down due to the fact that the Committee on foreign investment in the United States delaying the examination of the contract And Not blessed her at a prearranged agreement term.
But really, Maybe the reason is different. In the current situation in the economy ENN without question will find LNG in the next few years on the spot market, And long-term goals to invest in another company With More attractive price conditions.
Curious And slowness of America. In this context, we can predict that North America is Not eager to let Chinese organizations in their own market, even If the contract is Not very profitable To the Chinese side.
remember the fact that during the trade war continues to ten percent duty (on the part of China) to import American LNG. If the trade deal was possible, the duty will be abolished. Moreover, it is expected a large contract for production And delivery of LNG to China from another American manufacturer, Cheniere Energy. But as long as all the plans. In fact there is no agreement, the import duty is. It is also uncomfortable For ENN: If you buy us LNG, it would have to "change" With other traders in order To in China was LNG of a different physical origin.
Another factor of complexity Is that is the source of gas For liquefaction. In addition, ENN in the (unlikely) case of preservation of the contract will have to pay for expensive liquefaction, it is Still necessary to look for gas in the U.S. market. To the maximum to reduce costs on this, it would be logical to invest in mining, But again, the US does Not want to put on the market by a Chinese organization. In addition, to do this we had to start earlier: at the present time And the best seats are occupied, And the existing players in the market has made great progress in developing technologies.
remember: Even in 2012, it was announced that China's Sinopec has invested 2, $ 2 billion in us shale gas production, forming JV With Devon Energy. Since then, about the success is Not stated.
Summing up, we Emphasize the following.
For the Russian Federation the refusal of the ENN from the acquisition - without a doubt, positive news. Now a Chinese organization will be more interested in Russian LNG. Needless to say, capacity under construction U.S. Freeport LNG did Not disappear, But Toshiba need to find a new buyer or on its own to implement LNG in fact no competence in the sector. However, capacity reserved Toshiba, are on the third line, which is Possibly Not running this year, And in 2020, so time To find a new buyer, the organization is.
in the medium term, This event also negatively affects fresh investasinya for the construction of the American liquefaction plants.
One major project would be implemented (the decision has been made at the beginning of this year) Golden Pass LNG, which we already wrote. But it implements two super-g: ExxonMobil And Qatar Petroleum. For companies middle also need guaranteed funding that can be secured long-term contracts for production And delivery of LNG.
And, of course, an important factor of uncertainty is the trade agreement between China And the United States: a transaction may motivate the construction of factories in America, And at the same time, its lack will record the current state of things, And definitely will reduce the number of decisions on new construction projects.
We cannot exclude that the entry of Chinese organizations of the contract on the purchase of the rights of liquefaction at the American enterprise was agreed upon at the highest level And is regarded by China as a form of pressure on the United States in the trade war.
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