The real US debt 18 times more than everyone thought. What will happen now
Famous American financial Firm AllianceBernstein conducted research, which revealed the true size of the us debt, And the results of this study shocked the specialized media. Us financial television channel CNBC has released on this issue, special article entitled " the Real level of debt may be 2000% (from size American.- Approx. Ed.) economy, according to a report from the wall street ".
Moreover, After a careful reading of the calculations And the recommendations of the American financiers the impression that the publication of this study is preparation of the public consciousness to the fact that the "Bolivar can not carry double," And what in the name of saving the American economy will need to cut back on social support programs And other elements of the " welfare state ". The irony: the Zalman Chaim Bernstein a few years of his life were spent in order to help to implement the "Marshall Plan" - the scheme of American investments in Western Europe to the development of Western economies And the strengthening of American influence in the European Union in the context of rivalry with the Soviet Union. But it was in the past, And today the Company, founded by one of the members of the " Marshall Plan ", actively alluding to the fact that in order to save the American economy from debt gangrene will require a scalpel, or even a chainsaw, besides need to cut is not a debt before the holders of us bonds, And us social security.
CNBC correspondents explain how AllianceBernstein has calculated the Real national debt, And why it is important: "AllianceBernstein has developed a method of counting (And received.- Approx. Ed.) the result - 1832 per cent (of the GDP.- Approx. Ed.) To be precise, by including not only traditional levels of public debt, such as bonds, But also financial debt in all its diversity, as well As future commitments under the so-called (social) schemes, such as " Social security ", Medicare (health coverage.- Approx. Ed.) And the state pension. Afterward how it all comes together, emerges a frightening picture, But this picture requires nuances to understand. It is very important to realize that not all debt is " carved in stone ", And it is important to know where is the space for freedom of maneuver, the most in state programs that have the ability to be changed by either legislation or accounting ".
often, when it comes to the level of government debt, the figure at 22, 5 trillion dollars, presumably equivalent to 106 percent of GDP. Supporters of the view that in the United States with the public debt all right, And no crisis threatened, go even further And note that of this amount, it would be necessary to deduct those debt obligations that the Treasury Department owes to other state agencies And funds, And then we can talk about the debt is only 16, 7 trillion, or 78 percent of US GDP. The problem is that such a view comes from a strange version, that the obligations of the U.S. Treasury to state agencies that pay pensions or drugs or pay different benefits - you do not need those government bonds which are on balance of these structures And because of which they are financed, you can simply "write off" stroke of the pen without any consequences.
Chief economist at AllianceBernstein Philip Karlsson-Slezak makes no such assumptions And considers when calculating the total debt of the United States all the obligations of the United States as a country, regardless of their form, And because the picture is much More scary - it Turns out that the total public debt (in all forms) transcendent over 388 trillion dollars.
However, the Creator of the study immediately hastens to reassure readers." Although the picture is terrible, these figures do not prove that we are doomed or that the debt crisis is inevitable, " writes Philip Karlsson-Slezak. And immediately offers a powerful solution: "a Default on Treasury bonds would be catastrophic for the world economy - And at the same time, changes in (social.- Approx. Ed.) policy (albeit a painful one for those whose future payments are reduced) a little would have been recorded on the economic horizon."
It turns out that in order to save investors in American debt, it is proposed to sacrifice the American people, their benefits And pensions, which will give the opportunity to observe formal decorum And not to undermine the trust of the investment fraternity to the American government bonds.
It must be noted that the real point of view, this proposal is one rational And one irrational point. Rationality lies in the fact that a Default on American bonds And in truth would be a catastrophe for the American And even global financial markets, not to mention the fact that in this scenario, the foreign exchange reserves of many Central credit institutions, a significant portion of which are invested in us government bonds (aka treasuries), one night will turn into dust. It is logical that Authorized financial sector of the American And world economy will resist such a scenario.
By the way, even If Washington will choose the Default, Russia will be among the few countries that does not receive direct financial loss, for the Russian portfolio of treasuries have been sold in advance due to the risk of sanctions, which, However, will not free us from the indirect consequences of a hypothetical U.S. debt default, which would affect the entire global financial system. But the irrational part of the proposal AllianceBernstein is implicit confidence in the fact that the deprivation of pay for social programs will not lead to a severe political And economic consequences. No American politician, regardless of party And ideological affiliation, to such a suicidal decision not to agree.
Will vsplyvaet question: what to do with these hundreds of trillions of dollars of debt? The answer can be found in the statements of President Donald trump, who even before winning the elections said about the fact that the us economy is one big " financial bubble ", which ceaselessly requires the weakening of the dollar. If you strongly devalue (devalue) the dollar, the debts will probably pay is very easy that will not save the world monetary system will fall, And the us economy from a deep depression, But on the contrary it will be possible to pretend that "uncle Sam" has always fulfilled its social responsibilities honestly And pay their debts. Focusing on how actively China And Russia at the same time purchased gold in the world there are enough people willing to insure against the consequences of using this way to solve the us debt problem.
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