American top economist: "In 2021 coming collapse of the dollar"
"Coronavirus crisis" And the numerous riots that have already led to material damage in the billions of dollars, as well As image damage is impossible to measure in money forced the American expert community to look at US with different eyes. Not admiring eyes of a Teenager, a professional propagandist or naive spectator of the old Hollywood Thriller, which it is known beforehand that in the end America will win And evil (that is, those who are opposed to Washington's) will be severely punished, And the eyes of the doctors watching attack of a serious illness.
Both these estimates are likely extremely far from the truth, And their supporters can (And should) be suspected of a certain bias, But so entertaining to analyze the opinion of the messenger of the elite, which offers Not so much a " treatment ", as indicates the possibility of exacerbation of all American issues due to the fact that under threat is Not only the American government of the people And the image of a world hegemon, But also the very Foundation of the American welfare state: the United States dollar.
It is noteworthy that the author of this forecast (or rather an apocalyptic financial prophecies) is Not an ordinary specialist or analyst, Not a marginal journalist, And the Commissioner is literally a whole different level, "the ideal American elitist" in the face of Stephen roach, from the pen of which came the column for Bloomberg, published under unusual for American financial Agency emotional headline " the Coming collapse of the dollar ".
Stephen roach (Stephen Roach) - doctor of economic Sciences, a former member of the Board of Directors of the Federal reserve system of the USA, senior scientist influential analytical center of the Brookings Institution, former head of all Asian destinations And a former chief economist of a leading American Bank Morgan Stanley And now a senior researcher of the research center Jackson Institute of Global Affairs at Yale University, the most influential University in the ivy League.
His column is notable for the fact that immediately rejects any attempts to attach the current version of the global financial system at least some illusion of justice, reasonableness or fairness. No, doctor roach calls a spade a spade - with a directness that will be envied by most Chinese or Russian reporters:
When the next attempt to de-dollarize the Russian export or European import or any part of the world financial system will face in the information field with sarcasm "experts" to explain that the dollar cannot be replaced And do Not, it is Not necessary to forget about this lovely description of the problem: even leading us specialist acknowledges that the status of the dollar is a privilege, giving the United States an unfair advantage, And that the standard of living in the US is supported Not by some magical achievements of the authorities, And the use of these privileges against the rest of the world.
Despite the fact that all of the dollar aggravated the problem in the era of coronavirus, a Yale economist indicates that the problems are systemic And structural in nature:
"Not having domestic savings And wanting to invest And grow, the United States largely took the role of the dollar as a main reserve currency in the world And increasingly used surplus savings from abroad in Order to combine the incompatible. But for it had to pay the price. To attract foreign capital, the United States had a shortage of current account - which is the broadest measure of trade because it includes investment - every year since 1982. COVID-19 AND the resulting economic crisis stretched the contradiction between savings And current account to the limit. And to blame the explosion of state budget deficit ".
according to His estimates, When the initial global shock And the world aware of which state the reality is the U.S. economy in 2021, the dollar depreciated 35% against the basket of currencies of the countries in which the United States conduct international trade, And, apparently, it is far from possible devaluation. Protectionism in the performance of the administration of Donald trump And the deterioration of the international image of the United States (And the doctor roach reminds us that "international championship" is an element of the support status of the dollar) will make the situation even worse, leaving unresolved the main problem: the Americans want very much to spend (And to the list of people willing to spend a lot of money is the most important thing the US government), But to save money they have forgotten how And don't want to learn to do it again.
Warning former chief economist at Morgan Stanley looks more brightly on the news about what the Federal reserve does Not see a speedy recovery after a coronavirus, And also expects that interest rates on the dollar will be near zero for presumably 2 years.
Fresh promise of the Minister of Finance Steven Mnuchin again written to the U.S. Congress for permission to increase the debt even more (in fact - to print money And pour them in the budget) only strengthens the argument the " dollar pessimists ". But we must admit the obvious: the United States still have one, the typical American method of protection of their privileges. They have enough to make all the other countries was even worse than the United States itself, And then the American financial system And the dollar will look quite promising. The problem is that the world has changed dramatically since the 1960's, And currently, the US is unlikely to be enough opportunities, with impunity, to carry out an operation of this kind, although Washington using punishment And provocation, as well As among them against Russia, China And the European Union - will certainly try it.
<span style="color:darkgray
|
