The dollar has passed a key milestone in 38 rubles
Dmitry Mayorov. The dollar for the first time in history exceeded the key level of 38 rubles, while continuing to play the West imposing new sanctions against Russia, inform capital data exchange.
The dollar may well exceed 39 rubles, while the CBR starts interventions to support the national currency, appreciated by specialists.
The dollar calculations " tomorrow " to eleven. 54 MSK increased by 24 kopecks up to 38, 03 ruble (during the bidding grew to 38, 061 rouble, Euro - 26 cents to 49, 21 ruble. The value of the currency basket (0, 55 dollars and 0.45 euros) grew by 25 cents compared With the level it was last closed and was 43, 06 ruble.
thus, the value of the basket on which the Bank of Russia is guided in its exchange rate policy, closer to the historical record 43, 21 ruble made in March.
Currently, it is difficult to estimate the real price levels, which are the ruble might fall. The dollar reached the levels, which was not observed in history, for this reason, it is difficult to think that will be the foreign exchange supply on the implementation, says Eugene Koshelev of ROSBANK.
Among factors such increase is without a doubt, the punishment of the West against Russia. The inflow of foreign exchange in the country has slowed down to 30 days of the deadline for the provision of loans to banks financial institutions of the West. Most of them acted very conservatively and even ahead of the decision of the authorities of their countries, in advance, reducing restrictions on lending to Russian counterparties. The lack of exchange started to affect even before the new wave of penalties assessed Koshelev.
Under current rules, the Bank of Russia will start selling currency to smooth exchange rate volatility only at the upper end of the floating corridor, which currently stands At 35, 4-44, 4 of the ruble to the currency basket. At the current rate of the Euro on the Forex in 1, 29 dollar Value of the American currency During the growth of the basket 44, 4 rubles will be 39, 27 ruble.
so, the regulator is formally entitled to wait until the dollar will not exceed 39 rubles, says Koshelev of ROSBANK.
Another thing, If the market very quickly jump volatility. That is, the remaining 1 ruble Rate starts to overcome for a couple of hours. Then the regulator may, without waiting for the real, to conduct verbal intervention or even to claim that the increase in the key rate.
However, According to Friday's decision by the Board of Directors of the Central Bank, the current level of rates is comfortable enough for the Central Bank, says Koshelev.
Answering the query of the Last news , the Bank of Russia did not want to comment on the topic of whether to stabilize the exchange rate to tighten their monetary policies. Meanwhile in the main directions DCT, published on the last working day of the week, the regulator has shown that not step back from the ideas of transition to a floating exchange rate. Somehow this does not mean a complete rejection of the foreign exchange interventions of the Central Bank in case of danger to the financial stability of their conduct.
at a press conference on the last working day of the week the head of the Governor Elvira Nabiullina said that the Central Bank conducts flexible and ready to respond quickly to emerging challenges.
The Central Bank currently in a difficult position. On the one hand, he is obliged to reform the system and to move next year to a floating exchange rate. Meanwhile, the current conditions of use nekomfortno to do this, says Koshelev. However, the ruble and Thus already de facto floats in a fairly wide corridor - the Central Bank does not conduct foreign exchange intervention is not already one month. And Then the last time he bought the currency (June 23) in the framework of the execution of the order of the Ministry of Finance to replenish the Reserve Fund. Sold currency regulator for maintaining exchange rate in recent times only on the eve of may.
so, waiting for the $ 39 rubles, now you can rely on exporters, which will not hold foreign currency position in the hope of further growth of foreign currency, and decides to sell the dollars at the current high enough rate to replenish the ruble liquidity in the beginning of September of the tax period in Russia (second half of the month).
From the perspective of external factors important for exchange rate dynamics will be the development of the situation in the East of Ukraine, where, despite the suspension of fire, fundamental changes as long as it is up. However, the EU Commissioners have stated that the abolition of punishment by the end of the month linked With the development of the situation in Ukraine. If such expectations will increase, geopolitical premium in the dollar will quickly melt, added the analyst.
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