Stratfor: Russia is far from helpless, to teach or to ignore
Russia is not helpless "cripple" to ignore her or to teach, says the head of the U.S. private intelligence and research organization George Friedman.
He deeply considers the present situation in Eurasia and comes to the conclusion That the countries of the continent are experiencing not only " economic disease ", but also political instability, the causes of which date back to one event - the collapse of the Soviet Union.
"The collapse of the Soviet Union set in motion the processes by which the institutions of the cold war has not had the opportunity to manage. Cold war delayed the appearance of realities that were buried under the weight of it, " writes the analyst. These realities, in his vision, are forthcoming. Europe is extremely fragmented collection of national economies. China restrains the centrifugal force by means of the repressive apparatus. In the middle East there are some "basic" forces, which now are in motion. The zone of potential instability formed between the Baltic and Black seas.
Russia was left powerless After the fall of the 90-ies, but rather has become a " great regional power ". It has an impact not only on European policy, but also to events in the middle East. However, trying to "win back their losses" After the change of government in Ukraine, Russia clashed with the United States, " says Friedman.
according to his statement, a role in the destabilization of Eurasia has played a traditional illusion That the " coalition of the winners will have the opportunity to be United and to operate as efficiently as fought." After the cold war, it was expected That the UN, NATO, IMF and other international institutions will be able to manage the global system. However, These companies were helpless." Although NATO is increasing its deployment and conducts exercises in Eastern Europe, it is a military Alliance, which lacks a strong army. International monetary Fund in many cases has become the problem, not the solution of economic difficulties, " says the analyst.
As for the U.S. role in Eurasia, " they turned out not to be mixed up in economic problems in Europe and China and limit its presence in the middle East ", But they are embroiled in disagreements with Russia.
The United States cannot and has not expressed interest to solve all the world's problems." Even the strongest man in the cafe is not able to wrestle with all the bar and to win, " concludes Friedman.
|
