Clinton is behind in North Carolina compared to 2012
Political consensus is almost unanimous: If Hillary Clinton wins in North Carolina, Donald trump must win all the other competitive States to take the White house.
At Clinton there are other paths to victory, but North Carolina was the center for the Democrats. 12 days ago a survey was conducted where Clinton is ahead of trump by 7 points. She currently has 4 points.
More than 1.3 million Democrats have voted compared to 990 thousand Republicans. As of Saturday, the last day of early voting, voters were Democrats less than Republicans. More than 125 thousand Republicans voted this time.
There is one key difference, which complicates data: Independent voters came out this time in droves. They threw about 810 thousand votes, that as much as 42% more compared to 2012. This group broke heavily for Romney in 2012, however, he was more of a traditional Republican. Romney was one of the harshest critics of trump, speaking last spring, "Donald trump is a fraud."
One of the differences of these elections is the popularity of the third-party candidate, Gary Johnson. The poll shows that he received 5% of support of potential voters.
Other early trends of voting in favor of trump. While polls show that Clinton has a lead among African-Americans. Trump gets the votes of white voters, who increased their share by 22% in this election.
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