Vinokurov: Association with the EU threatens Ukraine multibillion losses
The signing of the Treaty on the Union with the EU threatens Ukraine and Moldova multibillion losses, according to Russian experts, interviewed Last news .
The European Union wishes at a conference on June 27 to sign initialed in November of the Treaty on the Union and the free trade area with Georgia and Moldova, as well as the economic part of the agreement with Ukraine, which signed the political section in March.
Risks For Ukraine
Director of the Center for integration research Eurasian development Bank Evgeny Vinokurov noticed That Ukraine is now going through a profound political and economic crisis." To cover budget deficits and balance of payments, external debt service in 2014 Ukraine need nearly $ 30 billion in inertial (moderate) scripts, and more than 50 billion dollars in a negative scenario, " said the specialist, based on the conclusions and calculations of the report " the dead end of the struggle integration in the European Union ".
in case of reduction of the level of trade and economic relations of Ukraine with Russia and the Customs Union, for example, with the signing of the economic part of the agreement on Union with the EU, the current situation in Ukraine will only get worse. According to Vinokurov, the maximum scale of probable losses of Kyiv in this case " is defined in 33 billion on annual level, or 19% of the Ukrainian GDP in 2013. " " there are accounted for possible reduction of export revenues, investment and migration of funds coming, increased gas prices and reduction of pipeline and other transit, curtailing cooperation, reducing trips to Ukraine and other ", - said the expert.
Compensation of these losses of Ukraine from the EU should not wait." Countries that sign this Association, commit themselves to comply with all EU directives, standards, technical regulations, that is all they do at their own expense. Even if the EU gives some technical help, then it is quite small ", - considers the Deputy Director of the Council on studying productive forces of the Ministry of economic development Russian Academy of Sciences Dmitry Mityaev.
according to him, such a Treaty, the 1st of all, establish a free trade zone with the European Union, Which implies the duty-free export of these items in the EU, but there are certain barriers, and the most important of them is the mismatch of the items to European standards." Ukrainian machine-building products in practice do not fully comply with EU standards, for this reason, it will not be delivered, " believes Mityaev.
at the same time, Ukrainian farmers have the possibility to lose their seats on Russian, Belarusian and Kazakh markets, has told the Deputy Director of the Institute of economic forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Shirov.
Risks For Moldova and Georgia
As for Moldova, it is Vinokurov leads More depressing For the state data: the amount at risk only under two articles - a decrease of export and migration of funds coming - " is determined at the annual level 1, 5-1, 6 billion, or 20% of GDP of Moldova ".
Mityaev also specified the possible advantages For Chisinau with the signing of the agreement with the EU For Moldova Is the most important issue of the labour market, As many citizens of Moldova working in the EU. For Tbilisi Signing is, rather, a moral value, because it has no border with the EU and its products are not in demand in the European market, said the expert.
Risks For the EEU
Moscow, for its part, could face a re-export European duty free items through Ukraine in the Russian Federation, Russia will be forced to unilaterally terminate the validity of a free trade zone and to impose protective duties, said Mityaev.
Moscow has repeatedly expressed concern in connection with the intention of Kiev to sign the economic part of the Association with the EU, As This increases the possibility of bringing to the uncontrolled influx of subjects. Russia has warned, That in this case will be forced to protect its own market.
" It is technically impossible to do to Ukraine was a free trade zone with the EU, and Russia to pretend, because It does not apply. Here the active response will be forced to give Russia, Ukraine does not itself will come out of this zone. Russia may denounce the agreement on free trade area with it ", - the expert says, noting That the same applies to cooperation with Georgia and Moldova.
for reviews Shirov, from this process have an opportunity to suffer most in the regions adjacent to these countries, for example neighboring Ukraine Bryansk, Rostov region and Krasnodar territory.
Association of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia with the EU may also affect the economy of Belarus, which has a large volume of trade with Ukraine. As noted the Director of Department of development of integration of the Eurasian economic Commission Viktor Spassky, if the site Belarus will rush European duty free goods, then it will take measures to prevent these items at their own market." Belarus to take measures not to let these products for one simple reason: if these goods of European origin and come from Europe, they are liable to the relevant import duties, for this reason, it will lose the budget of Belarus, " - said the expert.
in the end though, the Countries of the Eurasian economic Union will formulate the General regulations of trade with Ukraine, said Mityaev.