Aslund: the West behaves selfishly against the Ukrainian economy
Western countries care only about their own interests against the Ukrainian economy, such as the question of payment of gas from Russia and provide the financial support, the economist, the worker of the Institute of world economy Peterson (Washington) Anders Aslund.
for reviews of the economist, the European Union is obliged to return Ukraine 1, 45 billion dollars, which Naftogaz paid to Gazprom in the form of the first tranche of debt for gas and to pay for Kiev remaining 1, 6 billion debt to Russia, another collapse of the financial system of Ukraine Not to protect themselves, says Aslund.
" The position of the European Union selfish and unacceptable, " writes the economist, noting also that the West is Not going to give Ukraine any financial aid until the end of January 2015.
The greatest concern at the present time causes the volume of international reserves of Ukraine in October very quickly fell to 12, 6 billion dollars, and at the same time, first kept at around 16, 4 billion, it was because of the support of " Naftogaz ". Thus by the end of 2014 the amount of inventory can be reduced to 7, $ 4 billion, says Anders Aslund referring to JP Morgan forecasts.
currently, the value of the hryvnia has depreciated to an estimated 50% against the dollar, inflation compared with the previous year increased by 20%, and by the end of the year, according to forecasts JP Morgan, may reach 24%. Ukraine is one step away from financial collapse, and as long as you cannot predict what form it will take. It is possible that it will be similar to the Russian crisis of August 1998. In this case, it will be accompanied by default, the extremely high inflation, frozen banking system, falling production volumes, level of activity and panic, writes the economist.
the most adverse effect on the Ukrainian economy have 3 factors, which are able to trigger further collapse: the decrease in international reserves, the fall of the hryvnia and a collapsing banking system, says Anders Aslund.
one way or another financial collapse can still be protected, but the Kiev authorities need to go to extreme measures. In the 1-St of all, the government is obliged to close insolvent banks, instead of to recapitalize them. In addition, the Ukrainian authorities are obliged to try to come to a General agreement with its creditors about the suspension of payments, in order to protect the full depletion of international reserves. While the government must begin to implement reforms and reduce government spending, 1st of all at the expense of the energy sector, and to demand from the IMF sufficient payment, says the economist.
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