KLEIN Lawrence (Klein)

Born September 14, 1920, Mr..


Memory of the Nobel Prize in Economics, 1980.


American economist Robert Lawrence Klein was born in Omaha (Nebraska). He was the second of three children, Blanche (nee Monheyt) Klein and Leo Byron Klein, his father was a clerk in the wholesale grocery trade company. After high school, Mr.. Omaha K. studied mathematics at City College of Los Angeles. His mathematical, as well as economic, education, he completed the University of California at Berkeley, where in 1942. received a bachelor's degree with honors. 'Although I did this and did not realize - he recalled later - experience gained from growing up during the Great Depression had a profound impact on my intellectual and professional activity'.

Postgraduate studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has identified the direction of its future activities. Working under the direction of Paul Samuelson, K. shifted the revolutionary theory of British economist John Maynard Keynes in the system of mathematical equations. In his' General Theory of Employment, . Interest and Money '( "The General Theory of Employment, . Interest, . and Money "), . published in 1936, . Keynes argued, . that the total effective demand in the economy - the total amount of consumer spending, . investment and government spending - determines the level of national income and employment,
. According to Keynes, if total demand falls below a possible farm produce, there is unemployment and depression occurs.

Based on the ideas of Keynes, K. built a set of equations, . able to calculate future production in the economy on the basis of historical experience, established relationships between these economic variables, . as taxation, . payroll, . level of investment and national income, . available for use,
. Bringing theories of Keynes's system of quantitative indicators to allow. into the world of econometrics - the branch of economy in which economic theories are transformed into mathematical models, in which predictions can be tested statistically. By 1944, when K. MIT has received from its first doctorate in philosophy, he published in the journal 'Econometrics' series of equations for the analysis of investment functions. His doctoral thesis in economics 'Keynesian revolution' ( "The Keynesian Revolution"), published in 1949, received international recognition.

Then K. became research assistant on econometrics in the Commission Coles Economic Research at the University of Chicago. There he joined the team with the participation of such prominent economists as Theodore Anderson, Herman Rubin, Kenneth Arrow, Tjalling W. Koopmans, Don Patinkin, Herbert Simon. Unlike his colleagues, more concerned with the theory, K. sought to the practical use of econometric models. Director of the Board Jacob Marshak has set K. task to check the early econometric models by Jan Tinbergen. In constructing the model of the U.S. economy to. completely away from the methods Tinbergen. From an economic theory and using different statistical tools, he sought to develop tools to predict fluctuations in business activity and assess the effectiveness of the measures of economic policy.

Constructed By. in 1946. Coles model of the Commission denied the widespread belief that the American economy after the Second World War inevitably enter into a depression, as happened after World War. K. correctly predicted that the economy will evolve under the influence of the unmet demand for consumer goods through the purchasing power of people demobilized from the army. Similar assumptions regarding the possibility of a depression after the Korean War were refuted by one of the more recent models of AK, for which predicted only a small recession. 'Although the. was not the first who built model - later said Gerald Adams of the University of Pennsylvania - he was the first who turned them into useful tools'.

In 1947, Mr.. K. traveled to Ottawa, where built the first model for the Canadian economy. Then he worked during the academic year in Norway, along with economists such as Ragnar Frisch and Trygve Hovelmo.

Returning in 1948. in the United States, to. accepted an invitation from Arthur Burns to joining the National Bureau of Economic Research, where he began exploring the influence of wealth, especially liquid assets, the behavior of the savings. The following year, in order to obtain reliable data contained in the reports on the financial situation of consumers, to. entered as a researcher in the Center research staff reviews the University of Michigan.

Here, he again engaged in the construction of macroeconomic models and, together with graduate student Arthur Goldberg has completed development of a model of the U.S. economy, known as the 'model of the Klein - Goldberg'. The structure of this model were put to the development. recent. It consisted of a simultaneous and interrelated series of directed equations whose solution gave the picture of production in the country. Talking about this model, P. J. Ball at the London Business School, said: 'As an empirical idea of the basics of the Keynesian system, [this model] has become perhaps the most famous among the major models of national economies to the emergence of other models in the 60-ies. ".

Despite the pioneering work in the University of Michigan, K. denied the post, when Senator Joseph McCarthy learned that the young economist was a member of the Communist Party from 1946 to 1947. Leaving from Michigan in 1954, K. spent the next four years in England, . the Institute of Statistics, University of Oxford, . where he was able to process the data Oxfordian reviews savings, . create the first large-scale model of the economy of the United Kingdom and begin studying the problem of statistical inference,
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In 1958, Mr.. K. went to work at the Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, where he began to construct models of the U.S. economy in the annex to the international economic system. The first of these models, based on large-scale project at the Brookings Research Council in the Social Sciences, was designed to predict short-term prospects for U.S. economy. They have become the foundation upon which to. subsequently significantly improved annual and quarterly models Wharton. These models still serve as important tools to predict, . as changes in taxes, . public expenditure or by such variables, . as the movement of oil prices, . may affect the gross national product, . level of investment or consumption,
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Models Wharton are extremely complex construction. If an econometric model of a developing country can have only 30 equations, the quarterly model of the U.S. economy has more than 1 thousand. equations that must be addressed simultaneously. Computer Center of the University of Pennsylvania has made it possible to build such a complex large-scale models and delivered to. and his staff from labor-intensive work to produce the necessary calculations manually.

In the early 60-ies. with the financial and advertising through the magazine 'Business Week' K. began to offer their econometric models for sale to corporations and government agencies. The commercial success of this activity has created a market for future models predicting conjuncture which created corporations 'Dejta resorsez' and 'Chase Econometrics'. When in 1974. was sold to the company 'Wharton Econometrics forkasting Associates', all profits from the transaction was sent to the fund the University of Pennsylvania.

In 60-ies. K. developed econometric models for some other countries, including Israel, Mexico and Japan. In the course of these developments, he became acquainted with how different institutional structures in different countries influence the choice and form of the equations used. In 1968, seeking to create a model of international economic interdependence, to. organized the project 'Link', which was attended by Bert Hickman of Stanford University, Rudolf Rhomberg from the International Monetary Fund and Aaron Gordon of the University of California.

As stated the same English economist P. J. Ball, . project 'Link' was conceived in order, . to 'integrate the statistical models of different countries, . including those in third world and socialist countries, . into one overall system to improve our understanding of international economic relations and prediction of world trade ',
. With access to the central coordinating unit of the project 'Link' and maintaining its leadership towards the preparation of computer programs in the University of Pennsylvania, to. now adds more and more countries to this project.

In 1975. K. served as economic adviser to Jimmy Carter, who at that time was fighting for its presidential nomination of the Democratic Party. K. created around himself a group of collaborating economists, which under his leadership drafted a series of policy papers for the candidate. In 1976, after the election of Carter, K., however, rejected his invitation to enter into a new administration.

To. was awarded the Nobel Memorial Award in Economics for 1980. 'for the creation of economic models and their application to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies'. In a speech at the presentation of the winner Herman Wald, a member of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, summed up the achievements to. as follows: 'To. created a veritable model of econometric macromodels, carried out a general approach to their theoretical construction and practical application. All this applies to the institutional organization, including a standardized procedure for economists, forecasters, its system of political consultation, developed an approach to adapting the model to take into account long-term shifts in the world economy '. In his Nobel lecture to. drew some of the economic scenarios for the 80-ies. compiled by Wharton and the model project 'Link'. About his own work, he said:

. 'Since my student years I was guided by the principle of serving society and the need to continually associate theoretical economics or econometrics with real-world problems, . and I tried to follow the lead of their teachers in this kind of economic activity ',
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Since 1968. K. - Professor of Economics and Finance, University of Pennsylvania. Colleagues describe him as humble and diligent worker, ready immediately to help students and staff. Paul Samuelson once described him as a man 'not of this world', since almost all his time to. paid work, making only rare exceptions, to listen to music or play golf. In 1947, Mr.. He married Sonya Edelson, they have three daughters and a son.

In addition to the Nobel Prize, K. also awarded the John Bates Clark Medal of the American Economic Association (1959) and award of William Butler of the New York Association of Businessmen (1975). He is a member of the American Economic Association. American Association for the Advancement of Sciences and the American Philosophical Society.