Welt: the loss of the West's anti-Russian punishment grossly underestimated
The economy of the West will long to feel the devastating effects of sectoral sanctions against Russia, say researchers from the Austrian Institute of economic research () Oliver Fritz and Gerhard Streicher, an interview which was published by the German.
The figures sounded by economists, "caused quite a stir, even the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin at the economic forum in St. Petersburg appealed to him: the loss of more than 2 million jobs and up to 100 billion euros per year have the opportunity to become channels for attempting to economically put pressure on the Russian Federation," writes the magazine.
Official statistics show only the tip of the iceberg. For example, according to the official results of the first quarter, the annual amount of damage to the European economy is supposedly 40 billion euros. But economic ties between the member States of the EU is so dense that over time, the loss rates will increase many times, says Oliver Fritz.
Thus is also the case with the loss of jobs. Say, according to the Federal Association of German industry (BDI), specifically with the production of items and services for the Russian market are 350 thousand jobs in Germany. However, if you trace the process chain, the figure would be far greater.
Gerhard Streicher explained this with a simple example: in order to sell to the Russian Federation of car Assembly production, among other things, obliged to receive the four tires, which already produces a different sub-sector of industry. We have lost jobs not only automakers But also among tire manufacturers. For their part, the companies focused on the production of rubber, plastic and other intervening objects they produce, not only for the German automotive industry, But also for French, which is also forced to reduce exports to the Russian Federation.
"The European Union - a very large closely intertwined economic region. We are in our own research found, for example, that a quarter of the negative impact on the economy of Austria provided that the German companies have less to sell items to the Russian Federation. The Austrian automotive industry depends largely on German. So, even if Austria will not reduce exports to the Russian Federation, its Economy will eventually suffer from the fall in German exports, " said Oliver Fritz.
All of the economists from the Figures are projections, because since the introduction of penalties insufficient time had passed to assess possible long-term negative effect of the introduction of restrictions. In fact it can be much more devastating, scientists warn.
"punishment is a political tool, and economists is quite difficult to evaluate. But anyway this is a very expensive mechanism, the real impact of which is impossible to estimate, " he said at the end of Gerhard Streicher's newspaper que Welt.
Western countries since March 2014 several times already imposed penalties because Russia's position on Ukraine. In March 2015 has been extended sanctions List of the USA, and on 22 June the head of the EU foreign Ministers meeting in Luxembourg have extended the economic sanctions until 31 January 2016.
The list of Russian citizens and organizations who have fallen under the punishment - in the material of the Fins news
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