Ebola will come to Russia in late October
Experts from West Africa reported that in RF virus can be reached by European airlines. There is a possibility that terrible fever will come into the country in late October.
Researchers who conducted studies horrible virus and its distribution dynamics on the planet stressed that they do not deny the precedent that Ebola can get to the Russian Federation. Scientists who work in the laboratory modeling of biological and socio-technical systems (MoBS) northeast Institute of Boston calculate the velocity of propagation of fever.
According to their data, the probability that 1 infected with Ebola appears in the Russian Federation on 24 October, 1%, and after another month, the risk increases to 5%. "At the moment, on the basis of the epidemic we have the ability to predict the likelihood that will happen when the 1st infection in the country. So, for example, according to our data, the possibility that infected with Ebola crosses the border with the Russian Federation until October 24, very low. However already by November 24, this ability will increase and will account for 5%. Likely will continue to grow in times when the West African States are not taken adequate measures to contain outbreaks of Ebola", quotes a scientist MoBS Marcelo Gomes "Izvestia".
Among other things, the researchers emphasize that the appearance of the first cases on a longer-term period, they can not predict. Monitoring laboratory can give a maximum of 2 months. It is the researchers explain that the analysis of the analogous predictions have a large impact a lot of moments. For example, to adjust the already existing monitoring in addition can improve the health situation in the countries of infection, a decrease or an increase in international support provided to the victim in the region, changes in the aviation message.
Note that the same researchers have predicted that the risk of spread of fever in England and France to October 24, 50 and 75%, respectively. Besides a high level of risk, according to reliable information laboratory, concerns Belgium, Spain and Switzerland. The world health organization (who) also argued that the advent of new infections fever in Europe is inevitable.
Namely, the researchers argue that a terrible virus in the Russian Federation can be reached by European airlines. "Despite the fact that the volume of flights between Russia and West Africa compared to countries, such as England and France, a small air all the same features. In consequence, the Russian Federation, of course, the probability is less than in the States, " says Marcelo Gomes. - It is important that Russian agencies responsible for health, carefully prepared to diagnose passengers arriving in the Russian Federation".
Note that the particular Boston laboratory MoBS engaged in the study of mathematical systems and computing devices, which can help to calculate the probability of an action or understand the relationship between various large-scale social action. So, for example, in the laboratory are exploring how social networking has a great influence on human behavior, how and by what rules is the exchange of information (videos, rumors, jokes, and more) online.
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