George Bush Jr.

In a presidential election year in the U.S. summer is always really hot, even if the weather is not particularly pampered warmth. The campaign is entering a decisive phase and, on assurances of political scientists, with only the end of May looms a real balance of power contenders for the White House. Career U.S. Vice President Al Gore, who is close to the official candidate for the Democratic nomination for president, was in full view of all America - its strengths and weaknesses are well known. His opponent, George W. Bush among the lesser-known politicians, too, does not apply: 46 th Governor of Texas, the son of former U.S. President George W. Bush. But in the political battle on a national scale independently, he participated for the first time. And it turns out that as a politician and a person's favorite Republican in many ways still remains a mystery, especially outside the United States.

Expand your idea of a new president, helped a trip to "political fief" Bush, organized in early May, U.S. State Department for a group of foreign journalists. After visiting the capital of Texas - Austin, . as well as the state's largest city - Houston, . reporters from European countries were able to talk with a number of experts, . personally know George Bush: the staff of his campaign, . activists of the Republican Party, . university professors, . as well as specialists, . perhaps, . most knowledgeable, . represented by colleagues from the local press,
. Since Bush himself was not able to meet - occupied with the election affairs, the governor holds a staff of no more than two days a week.

. One of the interviewees clearly exaggerated the merits of the Republican contender for the White House, others have shown more restraint in assessing its qualities
. However, all agreed on one thing: in reality the chances Bush to be elected president can not be the slightest doubt. How figuratively Professor University of Texas at Austin, Bruce Buchanan, a possibility he presents "fate itself on a silver platter". It is not just a famous name, which the Texas governor had inherited from his father. Currently, scientists say, the American Society feels tired of Clinton and is looking for a safe alternative ". In this situation, Bush is "a man of convenience: he is not tainted by the Washington scandals, . similar to, . which now and then flare up around Bill Clinton, conservative, . not go to extremes, . as some Republican politicians like Newt Gingrich, . former Speaker of the House of Representatives; enjoys being in the limelight, . but not ambitious, painfully, . some, . who dream about the presidential chair, almost from kindergarten / obvious allusion to the Al Gore /,
.

"Dablyu George W. Bush was born July 6, 1946 - read his official biography - and grew up in Texas, in Midland and Houston. He received a bachelor's degree from Yale University and a master of business administration at Harvard Business School. He served as pilot of the F-102 in the Texas Air National Guard. He started his career in the oil and gas industry in Midland in 1975 and worked in the energy industry until 1986. After participating in the presidential campaign of his father in 1988, gathered a group of partners that purchased the 1989 baseball team Texas Rangers, and later built for the Rangers' new base - a stadium in Arlington. He has held the post of partner and general manager in club management before being elected governor on Nov. 8, 1994, when he received 53,5% of votes. Won a historic victory on Nov. 3, 1998: won 68,6% of votes, became the first Texas governor elected to two four-year consecutive terms. Contains curriculum vitae and personal data: "Governor Bush, . and his wife, Laura, . former teacher and librarian, . grew up in Midland, . live in the historic governor's mansion in Austin, along with 18-year-old twin daughters, Barbara and Jenna, . a dog named Spot, . and two cats - Willie and Ernie,
. By faith Governor Bush - an adherent of the Methodist Church.

Among fellow Bush enjoyed high popularity, and they are out to emphasize that they consider him "their one hundred percent". Hence the frequent references to "a child in a hot and dusty Midland, which is adjacent to another well-known city in the western states - Odessa. Characteristically, in his official biography missed the birthplace of the Governor. When asked to clarify, . where are all the same Bush was born, . Deputy Director of the Governor's staff members, . charge of public relations, . Michael Jones with obvious reluctance replied: "Unfortunately, . in the State of Connecticut, ,

. One can say that Bush pays Texan reciprocate
. Of course, going to the national political arena, he needs the assistance of sophisticated experts who are well oriented in the Washington corridors of power. And the press already was reported that Texas Governor strikes up contacts with prominent Republican strategists in Washington ". However, the backbone of his political team is clearly Texas. Some party fellows criticized the Bush clan, shown by the formation of election headquarters. States, inter alia, that it is Texas aides, a poor guide to the realities of other states, has been guilty of grave errors made by George Bush during the primary election. Yet the governor is clearly not ready to break the political umbilical cord "with his staff.

. But who knows, . maybe, . Soon the political scene the U.S. Texas stars shine, . such, . Joe Ollbo / now general manager of the campaign or Karen Hughes / Director of the electoral headquarters of Public Affairs /? The nearest assistants favorite Republicans, . to the testimony of experts in Texas, . are now Karl Rove and Donald Evans,
. The first is considered the main strategist of the campaign of George Bush. K. Rowe - a professional political consultant, sold his company in Austin, to devote all his time to Bush. Using the reputation of this intellectual, is the "home teacher" under the governor, oversees the terms of his reading. That Rove is credited cultivating the image of Bush as a "conservative, which is not alien to compassion."

D. Evans - Chairman of the campaign, the investor, which Bush Jr. has long term friendship. Just like Rove, has had on the Texas governor a huge impact. Some do not exclude that in the case of Bush's victory in presidential elections Evans prepared for the post of Chief of Staff White House staff. Helps George W. Bush and some of his old associates of Bush. Among his foreign policy advisers include former U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz and former Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz. Their advice, incidentally, largely related to policy toward Russia. A selection of the candidate for the vice presidency, which led to a pair of a decisive battle with Bush for the White House, is engaged in a former Minister of Defense Richard Cheney.

. However, . unanimously stressed the Texas experts, . Bush seeks to use his father's political baggage only marginally, . as in their interest - to create a reputation for being fiercely independent politics, . not "presidential son",
. "Governor Bush uses only selfless love of a father and, . sure, . mother, . - Didactically said Deputy Press Secretary Austin campaign headquarters "George Bush - the presidential" Scott McClellan, . - And in the course of formulating policies completely independently ",
. However, selfless parental love sometimes is not for the benefit of favorite Republicans. "When the old Bush said" my boy "more than an adult son, claims to the White House - said correspondent" Austin American-Statesman, "- it leaves not too enjoyable.

. Among the advisers to George W. Bush, . outside the narrow circle of Texans, . most clearly distinguished of course a black politician Condoleezza Rice, . well-known specialist in Russia's problems, . has made a name for himself at Stanford University and has experience in the administration of Bush Sr.,
. In regard to foreign policy experts acknowledge, Bush is largely under the influence of conservative thinkers from the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace at Stanford. Rice is an outstanding representative of this school, preaching a rather hard line against Moscow. In Texas, about the main foreign policy advisor to Bush speak with reverence. "It is quite admit that under the Bush-Rice, the president could be an assistant for national security", - said the University of Houston professor Richard Murray.

. George W. Bush and Condoleezza Rice are in constant contact, sharing, in particular, e-mails
. Taking Russia's terminology, it could be called a "continuous campaign against illiteracy" in the field of international affairs. However, Texas political scientists insist, there is no hint of "brainwashing". "As Adviser Rice is worthy of every respect, - said Professor Buchanan. - It does not apply to the number of manipulators with the manners of a Machiavellian type of Zbigniew Brzezinski ". Condoleezza Rice herself gives the impression of a calm and balanced and not alien to poetry. For myself said that in life it is "two great love - music and Russia". But as a specialist receives not only approving assessment. In New York City from one of political scientists, who worked a lot of time in Russia, it was possible to hear this: "Condoleezza unable to comprehend the depth of Russian affairs, as experience first-hand acquaintance with Russia, it has virtually no. Almost all her knowledge about the country drawn from the books. "

In any case, George W. Bush is primarily a provincial politician, as evidenced by not only the selection of aides. And it does not sound to it rebuke. Paradoxically, the very position occupied by them now, does not give Bush a chance to show itself with a bright side nationwide.

Texas - one of the largest U.S. state and territory, and population. If we consider it as a separate state, then by size Texas economy would take a 11 th place in the world. Along with New York, California and Florida Texas is a "superchetverku" states, which play a decisive role in political life. However, the effect of the Texas governor is far more modest position than, say, the governor of New York. This provision is incorporated in the state constitution, adopted after it was completed in 1876 and "reconstruction", in other words, the occupation forces of northern Texas, which was part of a civil war in the slave-owning confederacy. Alarmed by the invasion of "outsiders", the Texans deliberately chosen a weak government and a weak governor. Texas lawmakers are not professionals. At the biennial management cycle, when legislative session continuously lasts only 140 days, they work on "part time", getting about 7 thousand. dollars a year, and on that kind of money in the United States did not survive even under the most modest request. The real powers of the Governor reduced mainly to the appointment of heads of various committees. He has a strong influence on legislators and with them had to rely mainly on the strength of conviction and personal charisma.

It is in these circumstances, developed a style of George W. Bush. According to people who know him well, he gets on well with politicians, sitting in the local Capitol, is avoided confrontation and defends only those bills that have a chance to be adopted. Governor skillfully playing to other politicians and voters. Take credit for it puts that "when it happened, the largest tax cut in Texas history". And this despite the fact that conservative Texans in the mass opposition to make their money in the form of taxes spent on social programs. Most Texans are supporters of the death penalty, . and Bush kept respectively: for the period of his governorship in the state executed about one hundred and fifty prisoners, . he is not going to interfere "conveyor belt of death", . arguing, . that "the system works as expected",
. Texans love a firearm, and Bush opposes legal restrictions on possession of weapons. Very proud of the governor of their achievements in the advancement of the local education system.

"George Bush is making modest gains, working methodically and slowly, - said University of Texas professor Bruce Buchanan. - He has set itself a popular goal, did not cause controversy. In a sense, he runs ahead of the engine, enrolling in its asset that is simply doomed to success. Do what is right and argued that the right thing - that his principle. How to recognize almost every one of the interlocutors, Bush deliberately avoids extensive agenda, preferring to focus on three or four issues that really intractable. Among the current priorities for him include: social security, taxation, education and juvenile justice. Ideal of Bush - the government, minimally interfere in the life of society, whose main purpose - to create conditions for fair competition. Children, schools, minorities, housing for the underserved - those themes are of particular importance to conservatives, which is not alien to compassion ". However, to address social issues Mr. Bush proposes primarily by market means. Now, for example, he advocates a very controversial idea of "privatization" of Social Security, so that Americans are part of their taxes going to pensions, could have before reaching the age used for the enrichment of the securities market. Critics, especially Democrats, have already dubbed the project "Stock roulette.

. According to some projections, if elected President George W. Bush, in addition to "traditional spheres of interest, special attention will be given to budget and defense affairs
. yet, adds executive editor of the influential magazine Texas Monthly, Paul Burka, Bush showed great interest in international affairs. "It may surprise you, - said the publisher, who personally knows the Texas governor - but international politics - is a family tendency to Bush. And George Jr. is to the same remarkable ability to negotiate face to face. He has a real talent in the field of personal diplomacy. "

According to the journalists' knowledge, the governor himself said that really intrigued by some of the pages of the history of the last century. Very interested, for example, his question about what made President Harry Truman's atomic bombing of Japan to expose. It seems that, very worried about Bush problem of international terrorism, in particular the fact that "Iraqis can personally take revenge on him for what he had done with their country of his father."

. One can expect that, having won the White House, George Bush wants to meet with Russia's President Vladimir Putin, said P. Burka
. However, the publisher admitted that Bush Jr. is unlikely to persuade Russia's leader that the U.S. can not do without a national missile defense system. If the son of former President Bush win the White House, his foreign policy would be "touch of the cold war," says well-known publicist. However, in American society, he argued, "there is no indication antirossiyskih moods". "Bush clearly hopes that the United States and Russia to the maximum extent communicated with each other as colleagues - said P. Burka. - The fact that in Russia there was a stable democracy, certainly in the interest of the U.S..

In the same vein, though more restrained, spoke in the Bush campaign headquarters in Austin. The staff expressed the view that, if elected U.S. president's Texas Governor's practice of Russo-American summit would be preserved as a "natural course". According to Scott McClellan, the candidate for the presidency already established strong personal relations with leaders of several countries, primarily Mexico. This line, in his opinion, it is also suitable for a dialogue with such important states as Russia and China.

. "Governor Bush has clearly stated the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia Igor Ivanov, . that does not regard Russia as an enemy, . hoping, . Russians do not see in the United States the enemy ", . - Said another representative of Bush's Staff, . responsible for foreign policy issues, . who wished to remain anonymous,
. Still, he said, "time is ripe for a new relationship" between the two countries. According to him, Bush would "focus attention on the part of those relations, which deals with security issues". At the same time contender for the White House intended to "avoid involvement in internal political processes in Russia, as this practice is allegedly" negative reaction from Russia's side against the USA. "

. Employees of the electoral staff of the Bush confirmed that he was "willing to cooperate with Russian in order to introduce amendments to the ABM Treaty, which would allow Washington to deploy a national missile defense system
. If agreement is not followed by Moscow in the "reasonable time", the leader of Republicans believed justified the U.S. withdrawal from the treaty. It was also stated that in the near future from George Bush can expect new performances "on foreign policy issues of trade". And yet, according to several political analysts, while the world is not really big crises, it is unlikely that Bush will do to our international affairs "topic number one."

. Who voted for the Texas governor's presidential election in November? His supporters, says Professor Murray, are "almost all investors"
. Do not stay aside and Texas business, also enriched the election funds of the Republican favorite. As noted columnist largest Texas newspapers Houston Chronicle, "Alan Bernstein, reliable support Bush are the Houston energy corporation Enron and its head, Kenneth Lay. Among the influential supporters of Bush also owns a large Texas investor Richard Rainwater, who controls, in particular, the company "Crescent", controlling the giant real estate. Incidentally, it is argued that Texas businesses not associated with the possible victory of Bush any special benefits for the state. Everybody realizes, . that he was not in a position of benefiting Texas, . as once did, . example, . President Lyndon B. Johnson, . creating the Houston control center manned space flight, . literally transformed the local economy.,

.

. Among those who provided the mass support for Republican candidates, can be called a war - and this despite the fact that Bush, who served in the National Guard, never fought, and his opponent Al Gore served as a military reporter in Vietnam
. What can be attributed to the strengths of George W. Bush? As already mentioned, he knows how to negotiate with partners. Pleasant in conversation. Knows how to listen and persuade opponents. Able to keep emotions under control, careful. When needed, takes a principled stand and hardness. Example, . Considering, . that should matter to prove the commitment to reform public education, . translated daughters Barbara and Jenna / named after the grandmothers and not very similar in appearance and characters from / to an exclusive private school in the simple state in Austin,
. Faithful friends and other demands unconditional loyalty. This is one reason why analysts exclude the possibility of a final reconciliation between him and a recent rival - Senator John McCain of Arizona, although he has recently and formally endorsed the candidacy of Bush's presidency.

. However, experts say, the desire to settle all the world may turn against George W. Bush
. In particular, the U.S. president to avoid a confrontation with the Congress could not be verified, but the Texas governor a stranger to such situations. "Bush looks remarkably ordinary, - admitted Professor Buchanan. - He hesitates when it is not prepared. It is not presidential greatness inherent in, say, de Gaulle ... It is not an intellectual, does not like to read, debate. However, all learning quickly, snatching the necessary skills on the fly. Bush is definitely not the type of workaholics who likes to spend time at home, and this is cause for concern. But Reagan was the same, but now he is regarded as the most outstanding president of the USA today ". "He is too fond of his pillow and her cat - supplements the characterization of Bush Professor Murray. - Can not say that his campaign is very active - he constantly needed a break.

There are some other difficulties of a personal nature. Allusions to the fact that Bush abused drugs in adolescence, there is no solid evidence can be attributed to the field of speculations. But it is no secret that until the age of 40, he is very fond of alcohol. "Suppose it was not alcohol, - said Paul Burka, - this habit brought a lot of anxiety to his wife, but he's nothing unusual had not seen". The weak side of Bush's - hatred of the so-called "national" press, which at one time rather critical of his father, and the current favorite of the Republicans is not the most friendly manner. Meanwhile, Bush is very jealously sees everything written about him, and he has a very good memory for correspondents.

. It is hardly possible to say that Bush has proved himself a brilliant career in the business - and in the oil industry and in professional sports
. "In fact, he twice burned, - said during the conversation one of the foreign correspondents. - And now, it means that Americans must believe that he had better luck at the presidency? "Finally, the fact that George Bush is Texas, not to every American is the best recommendation. Texas - the only state that for several years was an independent republic, but because they say its people, loves to act in defiance of the rest. Bush, of course, far from the caricature image of Texas, which is unacceptable in other states, especially in the liberal North-East. Nevertheless, the antagonism between the "state of solitary star and the rest of the country to some extent still. Many still remembers it, . as at the turn of 70-80-ies, . in the era of oil boom, . when the economy revived Texas, . and North-East suffered from lack of fuel, . Texas roads traveled by car with the bumper sticker: "Let the damned Yankees freeze in the dark",
. And in the New England states Bush is unlikely to help the fact that by birth he is a "Yankee from Connecticut."

Often, the Texas governor has campaigned, "stepping on rakes". Too yaroe upholding the legality of the frequent use of the death penalty is fairly cautious attitude on the part of such categories of voters, both women and Catholics. Sometimes only one careless statements to inflict substantial damage to itself. For example, stating that "only Christians get into heaven," Bush is very upset Jews. To make amends to them, he had to make a trip to Israel. But in Europe it is still hardly known.

Probably the unequivocally works on Bush's image of the exemplary family man. Very good impression on others makes his wife, Laura, giving to understand that is not going to interfere in the political life of the spouse. "I did not climb to it with tenets," she said in a recent television interview. - I do not think that George needed mass boards on my side ". These words have received a favorable response in a society that seems to be experiencing "a certain weariness, not only from Bill, but on Hillary Clinton. However, it is generally accepted that for Bush, his wife plays the role of disciplining factor.

As for Russia, from President George W. Bush, second, it can expect more hard-line rhetoric, but in the spirit of the Cold War, experts believe, will have, rather, "a ritual or a seasonal value. There is reason to hope that the main areas of the already established cooperation will remain unaffected by new developments. In particular, spokesman for the Space Center in Houston, Stephen Nesbitt confirmed that cooperation with Russia fully meets the interests of NASA, especially now, when creating the International Space Station. Sure, . much in American politics could change depending on the outcome of presidential elections, . coming in November, . recognized representative of the U.S. space agency, . but, . no matter who became president, . is hoped, . that the US-Russia cooperation in space exploration "will not only save, . but also to expand. ",

. By the way, . himself, George Bush, . speaking at the National Press Club on the eve of US-Russia summit in Moscow, . said, . that the national security of Russia and the U.S. should not continue to "depend on maintaining the balance of nuclear threat," the two powers, . stressing, . that "Russia is no longer an enemy of the U.S.,
. "The logic of the Cold War, which led to the creation of large stockpiles of nuclear weapons on both sides, had outlived its usefulness," said J. Bush.

If elected U.S. President Bush is prepared to reduce the American nuclear capability to a level that would correspond to the scale of threats to national security. Replying to questions, he confirmed that he would be willing to act unilaterally and. According to Bush, the level of arms in question might be "significantly lower" under START-2. From Bush's statements and explanations of his aides made it clear that a willingness to reduce the U.S. nuclear capability due to changes in the alignment of forces in the world after the Cold War. In particular, now nuclear forces, in their opinion, no longer need the U.S. as a counterweight to the threat posed by conventional weapons.

. Bush called Bill Clinton "did not tie the hands" of the future head of the American administration "hasty arrangements" with Russia in the field of arms control
. He expressed the view that the current administration is "moving toward a hasty decision, dictated by the political calendar". According to Bush, "any changes in the ABM Treaty to allow the development of technologies and experiments required to deploy adequate missile defense systems". "The lack of any decision would be better than the flawed agreement that ties the hands of the next president."

. Replying to questions, Bush said that in the case came to power, ready to share with Russia, U.S. Expertise on missile defense - the truth, "depending on the behavior of" Moscow on the international scene
. He also reiterated his commitment to constructive talks with Russia's President Vladimir Putin on missile defense. Bush said he would "just look in the eye" to the President of Russia Vladimir Putin and tell him: "You are no longer our enemies, and we will also not enemies. I have no doubt that we can work together ". According to the applicant, "very important" to convey to the Russians the idea that the Americans - "a nation of peace and welcome the opportunity to work together with Russia to preserve peace."

. On the question of whether he puts the military sense of the notion of national greatness in the U.S., especially Bush, expressed confidence that America's greatness is based on "love and mutual support" its inhabitants
. In this case, however, he stressed that is not reduced combat readiness of U.S. troops. According to him, he wanted to "reassure Mr Putin that the military might want America to keep the peace".

Source: Peoples.ru